During the past week the Chinese cold rolled coil (CRC) market continued the upward trend of the previous week. Meanwhile, traders hold diverse opinions regarding the likely future trend of the market. As of December 15, average CRC prices in the main markets in China are as follows:
Product name |
Specification |
Category |
Average price (RMB/mt) |
Weekly change (RMB/mt) |
Price ($/mt) |
Weekly change ($/mt) |
1.0 mm × 1,250 mm × C |
SPCC |
5,347 |
+30 |
803 |
+5 |
|
CRS |
1.0 mm × 1,250 m × 2,500 mm |
SPCC |
5,423 |
+36 |
814 |
+5 |
On December 15, prices of ST12 1.0 mm × 1,250 mm × C CRC stand at RMB 5,320/mt ($800/mt), RMB 5,300/mt ($797/mt) and RMB 5,420/mt ($815/mt) respectively in the Shanghai, Tianjin and Lecong markets. In addition, prices of ST12 1.0 mm × 1,250 mm × 2,500 mm CRS stand at RMB 5,420/mt ($815/mt), RMB 5,400/mt ($812/mt) and RMB 5,450/mt ($820/mt) respectively in the Shanghai, Tianjin and Lecong markets. All the above prices include 17 percent VAT (US$1 = RMB 6.65).
On December 10, 2010, aggregate CRC inventory in the main Chinese cities was 1.40124 million mt, up 550 mt week on week. On December 10, inventory in Shanghai was 496,840 mt, down 2,550 mt week on week. During the one-week period in question, CRC inventory in the Chinese market did not register much change.
In the past week Chinese CRC market prices have trended upward, while the general transaction situation has been normal. Traders hold diverse opinions about the likely future market trend. Some traders are pessimistic and consider that CRC prices lack support. They point to increased steel output (in November daily crude steel output in China reached 1.622 million mt, up 2.4 percent month on month), and also to the fact that the market has now entered its low season due to the cold weather, with the possibility that the transaction situation may deteriorate with demand falling below supply levels. In addition, these traders think that Chinese macroeconomic policy may cause fluctuations in the financial markets and exert a negative influence on the steel market. On the other hand, some traders have a more optimistic outlook, as they say high raw material costs will support CRC prices, while they also indicate that deliveries in the market are not stable, and so shortages of supplies may continue to exist. Furthermore, major domestic steel producer Baosteel has increased its flat steel prices for January, with its common carbon CRC prices up by RMB 200/mt ($30/mt), thereby giving additional cause for optimism.
For the coming week, it is expected that the Chinese CRC market may move up tentatively in line with ex-mill prices, though any strong price increases appear unlikely.