Spot prices for US domestic cut-to-length plate have ticked down slightly since our last report two weeks ago, with plate facing an apathetic market spawned by stalled construction projects and continued economic uncertainty. Having said that- the most commonly seen transaction ranges are being reported at about $39.50-$40.50 cwt. ($871-$893/mt or $790-$810/nt).
"We need construction to come back," said one Midwest service center. "As long as there's no construction you can't do very well."
Economists point out that it may be quite some time before a rebound is seen within that market segment.
Peter Morici, former Chief Economist for US International Trade Commission agrees with a sluggish and tepid recovery, having recently been quoted as saying that construction investment is forecasted to remain weak due to a serious and excessive supply of housing- which would take several years to work off, even in the case of a growing economy.
Another looming challenge currently being faced by businesses is the December 31 expiration date of the Bush tax-cuts, meaning that unless Congress moves to stay the expiration date, that businesses taking in an excess of $250,000 per year will have to write a larger check to the IRS come tax-time. Because of this possibility, would-be-spenders are holding onto their purse strings and are more reluctant to add jobs or invest in new projects due to the fiscal and economic uncertainty that accompanies it.
For now, the forecast for US domestic plate remains similar to our last report, with buyers remaining extra cautious, inventories being tightly managed, and all eyes turning to Washington, hopeful that the upcoming elections will foster greater clarity when it comes to the economy. In terms of cost, the forecast for plate has shifted from neutral to neutral-to-slightly-downward, with many crossing their fingers that construction and related project spending will resume sooner than later. However, a number of buyers have indicated that "it doesn't make any difference what the price is, because nothing is being built."
Import tonnages, though, are indicative of a greater optimism seen earlier in 2010 when it was believed that activity in the third and fourth quarter would be somewhat more positive than what's currently being seen. Thus, the most recent data released by the US Department of Commerce Import Administration point to month-on-month increases in deliveries of cut-to-length-plate to US Ports.
For the month of September, total import tonnages of plate were reported at 45,064 mt (license data), reflecting an approximate 25 percent increase over the 33,682 mt (preliminary census data) recorded for August. During the month of September, the most significant offshore importer of cut-to-length plate is Germany, at 2,947 mt, reflecting a marked increase over the 597.2 mt reported in August.