Economic overview for Mexico & Canada May 22, 2010

Mexico: The official GDP numbers for Q1 are not quite out yet but there are strong indications that the growth for the latest 12 months up to the end of March will have exceeded four percent. Automotive production and exports have recovered impressively compared to last year.  Industrial production rose at the fastest pace in four years primarily on account of increasing exports to the US. As the economic picture begins to look rosier an entirely unexpected new problem has surfaced.  Mexico is experiencing a baby bust. Easy access to contraceptive and unrelenting immigration to the US has changed demographics radically. The average birth rate for a woman in Mexico used to be seven. Now it is two. In 1980 the average age in Mexico was 17; now it is 27. The health care system was organized to take care of women and children and now struggles to switch to geriatrics. Until recently, the US has absorbed as much as 50 percent of each new Mexican generation.

Canada: Employment in April rose by a record 108,700 jobs. The International Monetary Fund predicted that Canada will be the fastest growing G7 country this year. GDP growth estimates for Q1 certainly point in that direction, indicating a 5.8 percent growth for Q1.

Intra Nafta Steel Shipments: Latest available numbers cover last year. The monthly breakdown shows a marked increase in steel shipments starting September 2009. It was then that the total monthly volume in Nafta steel shipments exceeded 1.0 million tons again. It was the first time since November 2008.

General Data:

Automotive and Steel Production

Total Intra Nafta Steel Shipments for 2009 in Thousand Metric Tons