The World Steel Association (worldsteel) has released its Short-Range Outlook for 2024 and 2025, forecasting that global steel demand will drop by 0.9 percent this year to 1.75 billion mt and rebound by 1.2 percent in 2025 to 1.77 billion mt, after three years of decline. In the previous forecast, steel demand had been expected to increase by 1.7 percent in 2024 to 1.79 billion mt.
The association’s downward revision for global steel demand in 2024 is based on the weakness of manufacturing and construction industries, aggressive monetary tightening, and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Despite ongoing challenges posed by the given factors, worldsteel is cautiously optimistic that global steel demand will enter a phase of broad-based moderate growth in 2025.
In its regional analysis, worldsteel said that the ongoing downturn in the Chinese real estate sector is expected to dominate steel demand in China, resulting in a three percent decline in 2024 and a further one percent in 2025.
The association forecasts that steel demand in developing countries, including China, will experience a two percent decrease in 2024, as major steel-using economies like the US, Japan, South Korea and Germany face significant declines. However, steel demand in the given countries is expected to increase by 1.9 percent in 2025, driven by the long-awaited upturn in steel demand in the EU, and modest recoveries in the US and Japan. Worldsteel expects steel demand in developing countries, excluding China, to grow by 3.5 percent in 2024 and 4.2 percent in 2025, driven by India’s robust growth and a rebound in other major emerging economies. India has emerged as the strongest driver of steel demand growth since 2021, and this trend is set to continue. Worldsteel anticipates an eight percent increase in steel demand in India over 2024 and 2025.
In addition, steel demand in other emerging economies of the world, such as the MENA and ASEAN regions, is expected to rebound in 2024 after a significant slowdown over 2022-2023.
