The World Steel Association (worldsteel) has released its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for global steel demand covering 2025 and 2026. Global steel demand in 2025 is projected to remain broadly stable compared to 2024 at around 1.75 billion mt, before rebounding by 1.3 percent in 2026 to reach 1.78 billion mt.
“Despite a considerable escalation of the global trade war and inherent uncertainties, we are cautiously optimistic that global steel demand will bottom out in 2025 and demonstrate moderate growth in 2026. This positive outlook is underpinned by the demonstrated resilience of the global economy, continued strength in public infrastructure investments in most major economies of the world, and the expected ease in financing conditions,” Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, chief economist of the Spanish Steel Producers Association (UNESID) and chair of the worldsteel economics committee, said.
According to Hidalgo de Calcerrada, the projected growth in 2026 will be driven by strong regional dynamics. While steel demand in China is expected to slow, developing economies such as India, Vietnam, Egypt and Saudi Arabia are set to record robust growth. Moreover, a long-awaited recovery in European steel demand is anticipated. Nevertheless, challenges persist due to high production costs, weak consumer spending, escalating trade tensions, and geopolitical uncertainties weighing on global steel demand.
China: Weak housing sector keeps pressure on demand
China’s steel demand is expected to fall by around two percent in 2025, marking a continued but moderating decline since 2021, largely due to the prolonged weakness in the housing market. In 2026, the downturn is forecast to ease to around one percent as the sector bottoms out. However, risks remain on the downside: a tougher global trade environment could curb manufacturing demand, while financial strains on local governments may limit infrastructure investment.
Developing economies: India leads growth momentum
Steel demand in developing countries excluding China is forecast to remain strong, rising by 3.4 percent in 2025 and by 4.7 percent in 2026, driven mainly by India, as well as the ASEAN and MENA economies. India’s steel demand is expected to grow by around nine percent over 2025-2026, supported by steady expansion across all steel-using sectors. By 2026, Indian steel demand is projected to be nearly 75 million mt above 2020 levels.
After nearly a decade of stagnation, with demand hovering around 35-40 million mt since the mid-2010s, Africa’s steel market has been recovering steadily since 2023. The continent’s demand has grown by an average of 5.5 percent annually over the past three years, driven by strong construction activity in North and East Africa. In 2025, steel demand in Africa is estimated to reach around 41 million mt, supported by macroeconomic stability, improved governance and diversification efforts across several economies - signaling potential for sustained long-term growth.
Americas: Regional recovery led by Argentina and Brazil
In Central and South America, worldsteel expects steel demand to rise by around 5.5 percent in 2025, led by a sharp rebound in Argentina - following a steep 30 percent contraction in 2024 - and steady five percent growth in Brazil, supported by government-backed social housing programs. The region’s total demand is projected to reach about 50 million mt, still 2 million mt below 2013 levels, reflecting ongoing deindustrialisation trends that have persisted since the early 2000s.
Steel demand in developed economies to recover in 2026
According to worldsteel, steel demand in developed economies is expected to decline by 0.5 percent in 2025, marking a fourth consecutive year of contraction, but to recover by 1.5 percent in 2026, supported by stabilized demand in the EU and US. Meanwhile, Japan and South Korea are expected to remain subdued.
Steel demand in the EU and UK is forecast to grow 1.3 percent in 2025 and 3.2 percent in 2026, supported by increased infrastructure and defence investments, lower inflation, easing credit conditions, and rising household income. Meanwhile, in the US, steel demand is expected to rise 1.8 percent in 2025, supported by pre-tariff production increases and ongoing infrastructure projects. A similar 1.8 percent growth is projected for 2026, backed by residential and private investment recovery, improving financing conditions, and reduced uncertainty. Additional upside could stem from the proposed “One Big Beautiful Bill” stimulus, which may boost activity across multiple sectors.