The Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) has reported a rare moment of stability in the global recycled steel market. In particular, the United States, where supply and demand were balanced through mid-2025, experienced an unusually calm high summer period.
US mills maintained healthy order books and stable operations through the summer, but by early autumn hot rolled coil prices dropped below $800/nt ($882/mt) from levels near $900/nt ($992/mt). The decline triggered reductions in busheling scrap prices, while weakening consumer confidence and slower economic activity continued to weigh on demand.
Europe: low orders and capacity cuts
In Germany, persistently low order volumes, especially in the construction sector, have forced mills to reduce capacity utilization and scrap purchases. After brief stability in August, recycled steel prices resumed their downward trend heading into autumn.
Scandinavia and the UK also reported shrinking inflows to shredders and weak collection volumes due to low margins and cautious buying behavior.
Asia: diverging trends in scrap demand
Across Asia, seaborne recycled steel markets remain under pressure as China’s steel exports climbed 10 percent year on year to 77.49 million mt in the first eight months of 2025. While Beijing has pledged to phase out inefficient capacity, enforcement has been inconsistent.
In South Korea, US tariffs and domestic demand weakness continue to strain producers. To cushion the impact, the government has introduced a $290 million export guarantee program to support steelmakers.
Meanwhile, India’s imports declined amid safeguard duties that favor domestic output, while Bangladesh sustained steady scrap demand, increasingly sourcing from Japan. Within Japan itself, scrap generation and consumption remain low, reflecting sluggish construction and demolition activity.
Africa and the Middle East: policies shape trade
In South Africa, export duties and the price preference system continue to distort domestic market dynamics, benefiting mini mills but putting recyclers and downstream industries under strain.
In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia maintained firm market conditions supported by stable mill demand and limited supply. The UAE, meanwhile, kept its AED 400/mt ($109/mt) export duty to prioritize domestic needs.
BIR statistics: sharp regional divergences
According to Rolf Willeke, statistics advisor for BIR, global scrap usage patterns diverged sharply in the first half of 2025:
- China: crude steel output fell three percent year on year to 514.8 million mt, while scrap consumption dropped 11.4 percent to 109.01 million mt.
- India: scrap usage surged 15.3 percent to 19.65 million mt, outpacing its 9.2 percent crude steel growth.
- Turkey: scrap consumption rose by 2.2 percent to 16.05 million mt despite a 1.7 percent output decline.
- Turkey remained the world’s largest scrap importer, purchasing 9.4 million mt in the first half of 2025, dropping by 5.8 percent year on year, followed by India, whose imports jumped 18 percent to 4.58 million mt.
- The EU-27 retained its position as the top global scrap exporter, though outbound volumes fell 2.8 percent to 8.3 million mt.