In 2026, new commercial real estate sold in China may see a year-on-year decline of 6.2 percent, with the pace of the decline slowing down compared to the decrease recorded in 2025, as announced by CIA, the largest independent property research organization in China. Meanwhile, total real estate investments in China are foreseen to indicate a year-on-year decrease of 11 percent in 2026.
Huang Yu, vice president of CIA, predicted that, over the next five years, total urban housing demand nationwide will reach roughly 4.98 billion square meters. Assuming a conversion ratio of 70-80 percent, the annual sales area of newly built commercial housing may reach an average of 700-800 million square during the next five years.
As market inventories gradually decline and social expectations recover, the real estate industry is expected to emerge from its adjustment phase in the mid-to-late period of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30).