Iron ore freights strengthened across key dry bulk routes in the Capesize and smaller vessel segments in the week ending 21 November 2025. While Chinese cargo demand remained steady rather than aggressive, chartering activity stabilised and vessel availability tightened, helping support an upward freight trend.
Market activity was firmer this week, with more inquiries emerging in the Atlantic and Pacific basins. Stronger export interest and improving cargo visibility underpinned sentiment, especially as winter restocking continues and forward demand gains clarity.
Capesize market steadies amid improving inquiries
Capesize rates across major iron ore routes -- Australia-China, Brazil-China and South Africa-China -- showed early signs of recovery w-o-w as charterers returned with fresh requirements. Slight tightening in vessel supply, improved weather conditions, and growing fixture momentum contributed to a firmer tone, with expectations of further upside as Chinese buyers step up procurement ahead of peak winter operations.
Supramax segment firm on resilient minor bulk flows
Supramax rates on the India-China and Southeast Asia routes remained strong, supported by consistent minor bulk cargoes. Balanced supply-demand conditions in the Indian Ocean and continued market activity kept this segment buoyant despite recent volatility in larger vessel categories.
FFAs signal optimism
Forward freight agreements (FFAs) for both Capesize and Supramax contracts trended higher, reflecting expectations of tightening fundamentals and improving cargo demand through late November and December.
In the meantime, bunker prices have been drifting lower in recent sessions, easing cost pressures for shipowners across key regions. The decline is largely tied to softer crude benchmarks and improved availability of marine fuels, which together have pushed prices down marginally. This drop has provided some relief to operating expenses, especially for vessels on longer-haul routes, contributing to a slightly more relaxed sentiment on the cost side of the freight market.
Route-wise updates
- India (Paradip)-China (Qingdao), Supramax: Freights for Supramax vessels from the Indian Ocean to China rose by $0.68/t w-o-w to $11.18/dry metric tonne (dmt) on 21 November.
- Australia (Port Hedland)-China (Qingdao), Capesize: Capesize freights for iron ore shipments from Western Australia to China inched up by $0.98/dmt w-o-w to $10.78/dmt.
- Brazil (Tubarao)-China (Qingdao), Capesize: Capesize freights for Brazil-China iron ore shipments hiked by $1.73/dmt w-o-w at $24.71/dmt.
- South Africa (Saldanha Bay)-China (Qingdao), Capesize: Capesize freights from Saldanha Bay to Qingdao increased by $0.93/dmt w-o-w to $18.6/dmt.
Market highlights
- Baltic index heads north w-o-w: The Baltic Exchange's main dry bulk index (BDI) climbed 193 points this week, reaching 2,270 as of 21 November. The Capesize segment led the advance, gaining 514 points to 3,647, while the Panamax index edged up 15 points to 1,912, and the Supramax index rose 48 points to 1,435. The uptick reflects improved chartering activity across sectors -- buoyed by healthy iron ore exports, strong grain flows and stable minor-bulk demand -- boosting freight sentiment broadly across vessel segments.
- Brent crude oil futures decline w-o-w: Brent crude oil futures dropped by about $1.6/barrel (bbl) w-o-w to $62.2/bbl on 21 November 2025 against $63.8/bbl on 14 November. The decline was driven by easing geopolitical risk, rising US inventories indicating oversupply, and a firmer dollar reducing buying interest.
- DCE iron ore futures gain w-o-w: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the January 2026 contract closed at RMB 785.5/t ($111/t) on 21 November, up RMB 13/t ($1.8/t) w-o-w.
Outlook
Market expectations suggest freights may continue improving in the short term, driven by seasonal iron ore restocking, ongoing grain export strength and firm minor bulk flows, particularly across Asia and the Atlantic.
Source: BigMint