International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has announced that it has raised its coking coal price assumptions for 2023, 2024 and 2025, while also increasing its iron ore price assumption for 2023, though keeping its iron ore price assumptions for 2024 and 2025 stable.
The agency has increased its coking coal price assumptions to $250/mt from $220/mt for 2023, to $190/mt from $150/mt for 2024 and to $180/mt from $150/mt for 2025, due to higher costs and rising global steel consumption. This also reflects Fitch’s expectations that the green energy transition will not materially affect the demand for coking coal over the next decade.
The price assumption for iron ore has been raised to $110/mt from $105/mt for 2023, while the price assumptions for 2024 and 2025 remain the same at $85/mt and $75/mt, respectively. The higher 2023 iron ore assumption reflects the year-to-date price performance. Iron ore demand from Chinese steelmakers has been better than expected, despite their low margins.