According to the Economic and Steel Market Outlook 2026-2027/Q2 2026 Report from the Economic Committee of the European Steel Association (EUROFER), apparent steel consumption in the EU recovered more strongly than expected in 2025, increasing by 4.4 percent year on year to 134 million mt, supported by exceptionally strong growth in the second half of the year and a sharp increase in imports.
According to EUROFER, apparent steel consumption rose by 13.5 percent year on year in the fourth quarter of 2025, following a 4.7 percent increase in the third quarter. The increase partly reflected the comparison with very weak volumes recorded in the same period of the previous year, as well as purchases brought forward in anticipation of stronger demand expected in 2026. However, apparent steel consumption remained around 10 million mt below pre-pandemic levels.
Capacity utilization remains low despite recovery in consumption
EUROFER also noted that steel capacity utilization in the EU remained subdued, standing at 65.4 percent in the first quarter of 2026, broadly unchanged from 65 percent in 2025. According to the association, this highlighted the continued weakness of underlying market conditions, despite the recovery in steel consumption.
Looking ahead, EUROFER expects apparent steel consumption in the EU to continue growing, though at a slower pace, by 0.4 percent in 2026 to 135 million mt, before increasing by 2.2 percent in 2027 to 138 million mt. Real steel consumption, meanwhile, rose by 0.9 percent in 2025 after three consecutive annual declines and is forecast to increase by 1.4 percent in both 2026 and 2027, supported by stock replenishment.
In 2027, demand from steel-using sectors is expected to gain further momentum, with the Steel Weighted Industrial Production index forecast to rise by 2.4 percent, driven by increases in construction output, mechanical engineering and automotive output.
GDP growth holds up despite geopolitical uncertainty
Meanwhile, EUROFER stated that economic growth has held up despite geopolitical uncertainty. According to the report, EU GDP increased by one percent year on year in the first quarter of 2026, compared to a 1.4 percent rise in the fourth quarter of 2025. In the same period, real GDP rose by 0.3 percent in Germany, by 1.1 percent in France, by 0.7 percent in Italy and by 2.7 percent in Spain, which continued to outperform other major EU economies.
EUROFER forecasts EU GDP to grow by one percent in 2026 and by 1.4 percent in 2027, following a 1.3 percent increase in 2025. Meanwhile, the European Commission’s spring forecast expects EU GDP to grow by 1.1 percent in 2026 and by 1.4 percent in 2027, while the IMF forecasts euro area GDP growth at 1.1 percent in 2026 and 1.2 percent in 2027.