According to the Economic and Steel Market Outlook 2025-2026/Q3 2025 Report from the Economic Committee of the European Steel Association (EUROFER), in the first quarter of 2025 apparent steel consumption in the EU-27 amounted to 33.8 million mt, up by 2.2 percent year on year, following a 0.5 percent increase in the last quarter of 2024.
Steel demand has been weak since the second quarter of 2022, when the Ukraine war triggered disruptions, surging energy costs, and rising production expenses. These challenges, combined with higher interest rates and global economic uncertainty, pushed the industry into a prolonged downturn. According to EUROFER, despite quarterly rebounds in late 2024 and early 2025, overall consumption levels remain historically low.
Earlier expectations for recovery in 2025 have been revised upward. Apparent steel consumption is now forecast to decline by 0.2 percent instead of 0.9 percent. This moderate drop will reflect ongoing trade disruptions, particularly the uncertainty around US tariffs. On the other hand, apparent steel consumption is projected to finally recover by 3.1 percent, if the industrial outlook improves.
EUROFER still expects no meaningful improvement in EU steel demand before the first quarter of 2026, and even then, volumes will remain far below pre-pandemic levels. The sector continues to face high uncertainty, with future growth dependent on economic recovery and stable trade relations.
