According to the Economic and Steel Market Outlook 2022-2023/Q3 2022 Report from the Economic Committee of the European Steel Association (EUROFER), the positive trend seen in apparent steel consumption in the EU-27 throughout 2021 continued over the first quarter of 2022, but was slowed down by ongoing, severe global supply chain disruptions, rising energy prices and production costs. In the first quarter of 2022 apparent steel consumption in the EU-27 amounted to 37.1 million mt, increasing by 6.5 percent compared to the same period of 2021, after an increase of 10.1 percent in the fourth quarter of last year.
The given issues are expected to weigh even more in the second half of 2022 together with the effects of the war between Russia and Ukraine. Therefore, according to the association, steel consumption is expected to decrease by 1.7 percent in 2022 and recover by 5.6 percent in 2023. However, the overall evolution of steel demand remains subject to high uncertainty. High uncertainty is set to last at least until the first quarter of 2023, conditional upon developments in the war between Russia and Ukraine - which are unforeseeable for now and its impact on global supply chains.
Despite the persisting supply chain issues, the output of steel-using sectors in the first quarter increased by 4.9 percent year on year after a 2.6 percent increase in the fourth quarter of 2021. EUROFER expects the output of steel-using sectors to increase by 1.1 percent in 2022, compared to previous forecast of two percent increase, while the output of steel-using sectors is expected to rise by 2.2 percent in 2023.
Domestic deliveries in the EU rose by only 0.2 percent year on year in the first quarter, reflecting the slowdown in demand within the EU over the second half of 2021.