Australia's metallurgical coal exports in the first quarter of the current year decreased by 32 percent compared to previous quarter and by 23 percent compared to the corresponding quarter last year due to the disruption of production in late 2010 and early 2011 by heavy rain and flooding, according to a report released by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).
For 2011 Australia's metallurgical coal exports are forecast to decrease by six percent to 150 million mt. Despite the decrease in exports, Australia will remain the world's largest exporter of metallurgical coal, with around a 60 percent share of the global seaborne market. Assuming more regular weather conditions in 2012, Australian exports of met coal are forecast to increase 11 percent to 166 million mt.
Meanwhile, Australia's metallurgical coal export volumes are estimated to decrease by eight percent to 144 million mt in the 2010-11 fiscal year (July 1-June 30). However, export earnings are estimated to increase by 30 percent to $31.9 billion as a result of significantly higher average contract prices. Production of metallurgical coal in Australia is expected to increase by 14.2 percent in the 2011-12 fiscal year compared to the 2010-2011 fiscal year, while met coal exports are forecast to increase by 13.9 percent to 164 million mt in the 2011-2012 fiscal year.
In Q2 2011, Japanese steel mills and Australian suppliers negotiated high-quality hard coking coal contract prices at $330/mt, representing a 47 percent rise from the previous quarter. But in the third and fourth quarters of this year, hard coking coal contract prices are likely to ease to $315/mt and $265/mt, respectively, as production and exports from Queensland ramp back up toward capacity, said ABARES.
For 2012, ABARES forecasts that hard coking coal contract prices will soften further to an average $241/mt, with increased supply from Australia and North America pressuring prices.