Australia’s 2013 iron ore exports to rise amid higher output

According to the Quarterly Resources and Energy June Quarter report released by the Australian Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) on June 26, Australia's iron ore exports in 2013 are forecast to increase by 16 percent year on year to 571 million mt, supported by forecasted higher production due to capacity expansions at a number of projects owned by Australia's larger operators, including Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Fortescue. In 2014, Australia's iron ore exports are forecast to increase by a further 16 percent, to a total 664 million mt.
 
In 2013, Brazil's iron ore exports are forecast to increase by three percent, relative to 2012, to 336 million mt. Brazil's exports are projected to increase 10 percent in 2014, compared to 2013, to 370 million mt as expansions at Vale's Carajás mine as well as mines in the Southern and Southeastern Systems commence production. On the other hand, India's iron ore exports are forecast to decrease substantially in 2013 and 2014 due to government-mandated mining bans in the key iron ore mining states of Odisha and Goa. India is forecast to be roughly self-sufficient in iron ore supply in 2013, before becoming a net importer of around 13 million mt in 2014.
 
Meanwhile, the outlook for the Australian steel commodity market shows that iron ore spot prices for 62 percent iron ore content FOB Australia averaged at around US$141/mt in the first quarter of 2013, with spot prices at US$152/mt in February but moderating to around US$115/mt in June in line with changing sentiment over China's economic growth and steel output. According to BREE, for the whole of 2013 contract prices for iron ore are forecast to average slightly above spot prices for the year, at around US$117/mt. Spot prices for 2014 are forecast to moderate due to increased seaborne supply and to average around US$112/mt.