Australia’s iron ore export earnings are forecast to decline to A$108 billion in 2024-25 from A$138 billion in 2023-24 and to A$96 billion in 2025-26, due to lower prices over the outlook period, according to the quarterly outlook report by the Australian government’s Department of Industry, Science and Resources.
The export earnings forecast for the fiscal year 2024-25 has been revised slightly up from A$107 billion in the previous report, reflecting a lower rise in the exchange rate and slightly higher prices in the December quarter.
Iron ore price volatility continued in the December quarter, while the daily benchmark iron ore spot price increased by about 20 percent in October to around US$105/mt, following the policy measures announcement by the Chinese government. Consequently, prices moderated due to cautious expectations of the market regarding the impact of the measures. In November, prices changed little despite the additional measures. Over the past year, iron ore prices have risen and fallen in line with market speculation regarding further policy announcements in China, a pattern that is likely to continue at least until early 2025. Also, the outlook for iron ore prices remains soft due to the strong supply outlook and weaker steel demand. Australia and Brazil, the world’s two largest producers, are expected to continue to increase export volumes by 1.9 percent per year over the outlook period to 2026. This follows a ramp-up of greenfield projects by major Australian miners, and major expansions planned by Brazilian producers Vale and Companhia Siderurgica Nacional (CSN). New supplies from Africa will also contribute to global supply. Additionally, rising steel demand and production capacities in the emerging Asian and Middle Eastern countries will lift iron ore demand over the outlook period.
The report pointed out that the benchmark iron ore price is still projected to fall to an average of US$92/mt in 2024 and then decline further to US$80/mt in 2025 and to US$76/mt in 2026.