Australia’s Department of Industry, Science and Resources has revised down its iron ore export earnings forecast, projecting a gradual decline through 2027. The updated figures reflect continued pressure from weaker global steel demand, softening prices, and increasing uncertainty in key consumer markets.
| Fiscal Year | Previous Estimate | Revised Forecast | Change |
| 2024-25 | A$117 billion | A$116 billion | -A$1.0 billion |
| 2025-26 | A$113 billion | A$105 billion | -A$8.0 billion |
| 2026-27 | A$103 billion | A$97 billion | -A$6.0 billion |
Key reasons for the downgrading of the export earnings forecast for the fiscal year 2024-25 compared to the previous report were weaker export volumes, lower benchmark prices, and a higher Australian dollar exchange rate.
Iron ore prices averaged US$93/mt during the second quarter, with spot levels dipping to US$90/mt in early April following the inception of US import tariffs. Although prices recovered slightly, the overall trend remains subdued due to output curbs in China announced in May, global trade uncertainties and sustained supply pressure from major exporters. The benchmark price is expected to average US$83/mt in 2025, falling to US$74/mt by 2027, the report noted.
Steel output - a leading iron ore demand indicator - to remain weak in H2
Global steel production - a key driver for iron ore demand - declined by 0.3 percent year on year in the first four months of this year, totaling 624 million mt, due to weak steel demand and lower production in Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Russia. It is projected that global steel output will remain weak in the second half of the year as a result of increased uncertainties regarding trade barriers and announced planned output cuts in China, and will decline by 0.2 percent in the full year of 2025.