Australia’s iron ore export earnings are forecast to decline to A$107 billion in 2024-25 from A$138 billion in 2023-24 and to A$99 billion in 2025-26, due to lower prices over the outlook period, according to the quarterly outlook report by the Australian government’s Department of Industry, Science and Resources.
The export earnings forecast for the fiscal year 2024-25 has been revised down from A$114 billion in the previous report, reflecting a slightly higher exchange rate and lower prices offsetting an upward revision in export volumes.
Iron ore price volatility continued in the September quarter as the benchmark iron ore spot price declined more than 10 percent in mid-August to under US$90/mt. Prices consolidated and slightly improved in late August to bring the average to around US$95/mt for the quarter. These falls are reflecting weakening steel demand in China in the context of strong growth in iron ore supply.
The report pointed out that the benchmark iron ore price is projected to fall to an average of US$92/mt in 2024 and then decline further to US$80/mt in 2025 and to US$76/mt in 2026.