Australia’s metallurgical coal export earnings are forecast to decline from A$54 billion in 2023-24 to A$41 billion by 2025-26, as lower prices offset higher export volumes, according to the quarterly outlook report by the Australian government’s Department of Industry, Science and Resources.
The export earnings forecast for the fiscal year 2025-26 has been revised slightly down from A$42 billion in the previous report, since a reduced possibility of disruptions caused by the La Niña weather conditions resulted in an expectation of an increase in export volumes, though this was offset by a downward revision in export prices in 2024-25.
In October and November this year, prices stabilized at around US$200/mt, following a 44 percent decrease from the higher levels recorded in 2022 at the beginning of the September quarter. Prices are expected to average around US$205/mt during the forecast period, subject to high volatility given market illiquidity and the potential for steel trade flows to vary with geopolitical and trade policy changes. In the meantime, Australia’s total coking coal production and supply are forecast to increase over the outlook period as new mines come online.
The Australian premium hard coking coal price is forecast to fall from an estimated US$244/mt in 2024 to US$205/mt by 2026.
Also, metallurgical coal exports from Australia are expected to rise from an estimated 151 million mt in 2023-24 to 174 million mt in 2025-26.