Fatih Köksal, secretary general of Turkish-based PASDER (Stainless Steel Association), spoke to SteelOrbis, reviewing 2025 and giving his expectations for 2026.
How did 2025 go for the steel sector and for the global markets?
2025 was a cautious year for the Turkish stainless steel sector in terms of volume, but profitability was challenging. The market experienced neither contraction nor strong growth; it stood out as a year of maintaining balance. Sectors such as food machinery, industrial kitchens and the defense industry continued to drive demand, but market expansion remained limited due to the general investment environment and financing costs.
One of the important items on the agenda for the sector in 2025 was the ongoing dumping investigation. The investigation initiated on June 28, 2024, for cold rolled stainless steel flat products was completed on December 27, 2025, and the decision was published in the Official Gazette No. 33120. According to the decision, no dumping margin was determined for Indonesian companies, while a dumping duty of 3.95 percent was determined for all Chinese companies.
Currently, there is a cold rolling mill with a capacity of 200,000 tons per year in our country and, since the total domestic demand can only be met to a limited extent, flat stainless steel products are mainly supplied through imports. However, in 2025, Sarıtaş, a leading and pioneering company in our sector, announced an integrated stainless steel investment in a capacity of 800,000 tons per year to be carried out in Yalova Machine Specialized Industrial Zone. This development is considered to be a very beneficial investment for our country. Stainless steel is of strategic importance for national and geopolitical reasons. With the implementation of this investment, our country will largely eliminate its dependence on foreign sources for stainless steel consumption. In line with the investment plan announced by Sarıtaş, the cold rolling mill will be completed by the last quarter of 2027, the hot rolling mill by the fourth quarter of 2028, and the steel smelting plant by 2030. Upon completion of the investment, it is projected to contribute to reducing our country's trade deficit by $2 billion in import substitution and by $800 million in export contributions, while also creating a total of 1,200 jobs. Therefore, this investment is of a nature that will have a global impact beyond its national significance. Given its strategic importance, it is highly meaningful and significant that Sarıtaş is bringing this domestic and national investment to our country.
For the stainless steel sector on a global scale, 2025 was a year of balancing under the pressure of oversupply and the fight for profitability, rather than a year of strong growth.
Accordingly,
- Global stainless steel production increased moderately in 2025.
- Global demand growth slowed compared to previous years.
- Demand growth remained centered in Asia, driven by population and industrialization.
- Global stainless steel demand grew by approximately 3-4 percent.
- Production growth was close to demand growth, so the market balance remained delicate.
What do you expect for 2026?
2026 stands out as a year with no high growth expectations for the Turkish stainless steel sector, but one in which a transition to a healthier market structure is possible with the right policies and regulations. The main theme for the sector in 2026 will be balance, predictability and rebuilding competitiveness rather than growth. This points to a period where trade policies, cost management and supply chain discipline will be decisive factors, rather than prices.
The general expectation for global stainless steel demand in 2026 is for a moderate and regionally differentiated increase. While the increase in global demand is expected to come mainly from Asia and emerging economies, growth in Europe and, to a lesser extent, the US markets is expected to remain limited.
Infrastructure, energy and industrial investments in regions such as India, Southeast Asia and the Middle East will continue to support stainless steel demand, while high energy costs, weak industrial production and delayed investments in Europe will maintain fragility on the demand side. The US market, on the other hand, presents a relatively balanced outlook thanks to infrastructure and defense investments. However, this increase in demand is not expected to create a strong surge on a global scale.
The most decisive factor for global stainless steel prices in 2026 will continue to be the outlook for the nickel market. Increased supply from Indonesia and the continuing global nickel surplus are limiting a permanent rise in alloy prices. This situation acts as a structural ceiling effect on stainless steel prices. While regional and seasonal fluctuations in prices are possible, under current conditions the expectation of a sharp and sustained price rally on a global scale appears weak, and the price dynamics for 2026 are more likely to be flat or show a limited upward movement.