Foreign pipe offer prices to the US have not yet been affected by the whirlwind of increases announced over the past several weeks by domestic pipe and flat rolled mills.
Since our last report two weeks ago, US flat rolled mills have increased prices on domestic hot rolled coil (HRC) by approximately $120/nt ($132/mt), while US pipe mills have followed with a minimum of $75/nt ($83/mt) in increases. And more increases are likely expected before the end of the year.
Nevertheless, most foreign mill offers to the US have trended neutral to only slightly up during this time. One may think that US buyers would be quick to book or at least begin entertaining more offers at these lower prices (in most cases, a minimum $100/nt lower), especially considering that US rig counts shot up another 10, for the week ending December 10, to 1723(up 562 year-over-year), but buyers' confidence levels remain unchanged as they still see more risk than reward in regards to buying for late-March to early-April delivery.
"We have been expecting prices to increase since last week, but they really haven't done much," commented a US trader regarding offshore pipe prices. "It doesn't really matter though since demand hasn't changed."
Korean offers for API J55 electric resistance welded (ERW) oil country tubular goods (OCTG) casing are ranging from approximately $47.50 to $49.50 cwt. ($1,047 to $1,091/mt or $950 to $990/nt) duty-paid, FOB loaded truck in US Gulf ports, representing no real change from two weeks ago. Korean offers on API X42 ERW line pipe, meanwhile, have increased slightly, by about $0.50 cwt. ($11/mt or $10/nt) and are now being offered at the approximate range of $44.50 to $45.50 cwt. ($981 to $1,003/mt or $890 to $910/nt) duty-paid, FOB loaded truck in US Gulf ports. Korean mills have remained the most aggressive source offering energy pipe into the US and despite the continued rumors of potential antidumping being filed against them, there has been no indication made to suggest they will raise prices significantly or pull out anytime soon.
On the structural side, Korean mills are offering ERW black plain end (BPE) A53 standard pipe at about $41.50 to $43.50 cwt. ($915 to $959/mt or $830 to $870/nt) duty-paid, FOB loaded truck in US Gulf Coast ports, while offers from Dubai remain higher, at approximately $42.50 to $44.50 cwt. ($937 to $981/mt or $850 to $890/nt) duty-paid, FOB loaded truck in US West Coast ports.
Regarding coated pipe, Indian ERW galvanized plain end (GPE) A53 offers have not moved much since the beginning of fall, with the common range remaining at around $49.00 to $50.00 cwt. ($1,080 to $1,102/mt or $980 to $1,000/nt) duty-paid, FOB loaded truck in US Gulf Coast ports.