While there has been a steady flow of scrap cargos exported off both US coasts and prices rose during the first half of November, the future trend is cloudy. In the last two weeks, Turkish mills secured a number of scrap cargos and exporters were pushing their prices higher. The most recent bulk scrap cargo sold to Turkey composed of HMS I/II and shredded scrap was sold for about $410-$415/mt CFR, up from about $365-$370/mt CFR in mid- to late October, but still down from some offers heard slightly higher about a week ago. Demand from Turkey is far from robust at the moment, but activity isn't poised to drop off drastically in the near future either as Turkish mills still need to secure scrap for winter steel production. Activity off the East Coast to India has been more active, with export scrap prices around $370-$375/mt FAS for shredded scrap.
On the US West Coast, activity and prices picked up in the past week, but the longevity of the increase is still uncertain. Export scrap activity off the US West Coast to China, Taiwan and Korea has been sporadic at best over the past couple months as the mills stuck mostly to domestic scrap or sourced material from Japan. However, amid low inventories, a few cargos were sold last week. Containerized scrap cargos composed of HMS I/II were sold to Taiwan at around $360-$370/mt CFR, while cargos to Vietnam were sold for $385/mt CFR. While the US export scrap market isn't steadily strong at the moment, there is enough strength to help drive the US domestic scrap price trend. Improved export scrap prices, coupled by constrained scrap flows and rising finished steel prices, could push up domestic scrap prices again in December.