August was a relatively busy month for US scrap exporters, but September has been quiet so far. There have been no ex-US scrap sales to Turkey in the last couple of weeks. Turkish mills purchased more than enough scrap for September production and sources tell SteelOrbis that they are now evaluating current inventories and planned production before stocking up for Q4 production. One factor that could impact Turkish mills' buying patterns is the recently filed trade case against Turkish rebar, which could eventually reduce how much rebar Turkish mills need to produce if their main export destination is no longer a viable one. Turkey has acquired a few scrap cargos from Europe, however, at slightly lower prices given the slowdown in Turkish demand.
Meanwhile, late August export scrap activity on the US West Coast improved substantially over early August and even July as Taiwanese mills came back into the market looking to secure scrap amid improving long steel demand in the region. In late August, a mixed bulk cargo off the West Coast was sold at $365/mt CFR for HMS I/II and $370/mt CFR for shredded scrap while an ex-US container scrap cargo was sold to Taiwan at $360-$365/mt CFR for HMS I/II, reflecting an increase of as much as $15/mt from late July. New offers to Taiwan have been heard as high as $370/mt for containerized scrap, but no sales have been reported at those levels. In late August, an ex-US HMS I/II bulk scrap cargo was sold to China at $385-$390/mt, also up $15/mt from July levels. But in the last week, interest from the Far East has subsided. In the US domestic market, September scrap prices are settling lower than anticipated, as the previous soft sideways prediction is now pointing decidedly lower. In the Midwest, shredded scrap prices started to settle on September 5 and 6 at prices $10/lt or so lower than in August, while busheling prices could lose some ground as well despite a previously optimistic outlook for prime grades.