Despite anticipation that US export scrap activity would improve after US domestic prices settled, export activity remains in a lull, forcing prices to fall. In over a month, US East Coast export sales of bulk scrap to Turkey have been almost non-existent. Turkish mills have been looking to Europe for scrap, purchasing cargos out of Romania and St. Petersburg at prices around $383/mt CFR. Exporter sources have indicated that Turkish mills have bid for cargos out of the US at prices as low as $380/mt, a price that is currently at least $5-$8/mt too low to be viable. By comparison, an HMS I/II scrap cargo was sold to Turkey for about $400/mt CFR two weeks ago. As the mills in Turkey attempt to push down US export scrap prices, SteelOrbis sources note that because of less expensive billet prices out of Europe, Turkish mills have been importing more of the semi-finished steel, lessening their need for scrap.
Nevertheless, exporters believe that Turkish mills will soon deplete their inventories and return to the US market to supply their May shipments--although given weak demand levels, the immediate direction of pricing remains volatile. Export scrap prices have also declined on the US West and Gulf Coasts. Containerized shredded scrap offers to India out of the US at $410-$415/mt CFR are gaining little traction, while containerized HMS I/II offers to Taiwan have fallen as much as $20/mt in the last month. About a week ago, HMS I/II scrap was sold to Taiwan at about $350-$355/mt CFR off the US West Coast, down as much as $10/mt from the week prior. At the moment, exporters do not believe the newest prices are the official bottom, and anticipate that continued price erosion in likely throughout at least April.