Will the recent increase in US export scrap prices last?

Monday, 29 July 2013 12:11:55 (GMT+3)   |   San Diego

The last couple weeks have been characterized by increasing export scrap prices off both the US West Coast and US East Coast. Turkish mills purchased at least four cargos in the last week, at prices that reflected a slight increase over mid-July levels. HMS I/II export prices off the US East Coast were sold at about $369-$372/mt CFR Turkey, while shredded scrap prices were sold in the $375-$380/mt CFR range for September delivery. The prices were up about $5-$7/mt from cargos sold about two weeks ago. Turkey is active in the global scrap market at the moment, buying regularly from Europe and the US. August activity, however, could show a slight slowdown, although scrap exporters contend they won't surrender gains easily, especially with supply and demand levels seemingly in line. Nevertheless, US domestic scrap prices appear likely to move sideways to slightly down in the beginning of August; if the August decrease is substantial enough, it could put some downward pressure on export scrap prices to Turkey.

But while Turkey has steadily been buying scrap from the US in recent months, export scrap activity off the US West Coast had been quiet, with only sporadic sales to Korea, China and Taiwan, up until about two weeks ago. A week and half ago, Chinese mills were looking to pay about $350/mt CFR from ex-US scrap, but exporters were unwilling to concede to the lower prices and a bulk HMS I/II scrap was sold to China at $362-$365/mt CFR--sales concluded just this past week were at prices as high as $370-$375/mt CFR. Meanwhile, container prices for ex-US West Coast HMS I/II scrap to Taiwan was sold at $350/mt CFR, up about $2-$4/mt in the last week. However, some Taiwanese mills have still been able to secure ex-US scrap at pre-increase levels, as Taiwanese demand for long steel products--namely rebar--isn't strong enough for mills to be too willing to pay higher prices for scrap.

 

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