Deep sea scrap prices in Turkey are showing strong signs of stabilization following the high number of deals already done since the beginning of the month. Despite the initial expectations of a continuation for the previous upward trend, ex-US scrap bookings shared with the market do not show any price increase for now. Sellers have started to admit that Turkey’s import scrap market may have hit peak price levels, though they think there is no room for a sharp decline in prices either.
An ex-US deal concluded by an Izmir-based Turkish steel producer indicated that the benchmark HMS I/II 80:20 scrap price still stands at $350/mt CFR. The same producer is rumoured to have concluded another ex-US booking at the same price level last week. The information circulating in the market that an Iskenderun-based steel maker has bought a third ex-US cargo at $351/mt CFR was denied by the buyer today, October 14. As a result, SteelOrbis has revised its ex-US benchmark scrap price to $350/mt CFR Turkey, down by $0.5/mt on average.
Meanwhile some older deals have surfaced in the market. An ex-Murmansk booking signed by a Marmara-based producer last week is reported to have closed at $342/mt CFR for HMS I/II 80:20 scrap. Another producer in the Marmara region closed a deal from Lithuania last week at around $345/mt CFR for the same grade, market sources report. A deal from Poland to Izmir was reported to have been closed at $348/mt CFR Turkey, though this information was denied by the seller. This cargo was sold by an intermediary, with the deal done under different conditions, market sources largely believe. As a result, SteelOrbis has revised its ex-Baltic scrap prices to $345-348/mt CFR, dropping them by $2.5/mt.
Last week, a third mill in the Marmara region bought an ex-Netherlands cargo of HMS I/II 80:20 scrap standing at $342/mt CFR, SteelOrbis understands. SteelOrbis has revised its ex-UK/EU scrap prices to $342-345/mt CFR, reducing them by $1/mt on average.
As mentioned, Turkish mills have concluded a high number of deals for cargoes to be shipped in November, accepting a total rise of $17/mt in HMS I/II 80:20 scrap purchase prices since September 24. However, they have now successfully put a halt to the rising trend and convinced sellers that prices have reached their peak. Having remained in the range of $331-345/mt CFR since May this year, Turkey’s import scrap prices are again still in a narrow range, failing to exceed these levels despite all the positivity observed earlier this month. Collection prices at EU-based export scrap yards are still at around €245-250/mt DAP. With the US dollar gaining some strength against the euro, some small room for a softening of prices may be available to European scrap sellers. A source at a US-based scrap supplier said that for now it is impossible to drop prices below $350/mt CFR Turkey due to high freight costs and slower collection.
SteelOrbis considers the lack of demand on the steel side to be the biggest factor. Turkish producers raised their rebar quotations earlier this month as they expected scrap prices to remain firm, but they failed to receive a positive response from buyers. Since March, Turkey’s rebar export prices have declined by $35/mt on FOB basis. Despite the fluctuations seen in the market, rebar export prices are once again at $545/mt FOB, the same as recorded in early May. In the rebar spot market, domestic rebar prices were at TRY 24,850/mt in early May as compared to this week’s prices at TRY 27,650/mt, both ex-warehouse and including 20 percent VAT. However, the Turkish lira has lost a lot of strength during this period against the US dollar, moving from 38.53 recorded on May 1 to 41.80 today. “With us losing our export markets after geopolitical developments and the safeguard measures in the EU or the US tariffs to cheaper Chinese materials, it cannot be said it has been a good year for exports. Meanwhile, the local market has underperformed due to high interest rates and Turkey’s new tax system has particularly impacted traders. In short, there is not enough profit,” a source at a Turkish mill said. Another Turkish source commented, “We do not expect things to change in the short run. If there was a positive sign now, we could have to wait for 2026. But since the off-season has started for construction, we can say that this year the rebar trade would need some catalyst, which remains absent.”
Under the current conditions, deep sea scrap prices in Turkey are expected to continue moving sideways for now. If Turkish mills take a break from purchases and try exerting pressure on prices, the response of sellers and a possible correction in freight costs will be the factors determining the scrap price trend.