Following the total silence observed in the import scrap market during the week-long end-of-Ramadan holiday, Turkey has bought an ex-Baltic cargo at a slightly lower price.
SteelOrbis has learned that an ex-Finland deal has been closed by a producer in the Izmir region for HMS I/II 80:20 scrap at $382/mt CFR and shredded scrap at $399/mt CFR, for May shipment. A $2/mt decline is observed in the ex-Baltic HMS I/II 80:20 scrap price, which is also expected to exert pressure on ex-EU scrap prices in general.
Turkey’s scrap and finished steel markets are still not fully active. After the US domestic scrap market trended sideways this month, sources tell SteelOrbis that another sideways trend could be seen for May, although there exists the potential for a slight increase. Sources also report that collection prices in the EU have declined over the past week to €300-305/mt DAP, from €310-315/mt DAP, while a German-based sub-collector admits that there have been sales of small tonnages in the lower price range. According to another German sub-collector, “Collection prices were pushed down amid the absence of Turkey. There is potential for a recovery since we cannot reflect this drop in our own collection prices. Scrap availability has not recovered much. Hence, we are inclined to increase our inventory levels instead of accepting these price levels.” Domestic rebar demand in Turkey remains on the low side, with some deals for small tonnages reported to have been done at $602/mt ex-works this week in Marmara region, while the bottom discounted levels recorded in the Izmir region are at around $595/mt ex-works. The current situation is in line with the expectations before the holiday. Some market players think this week may remain relatively silent in terms of scrap transactions, while others think the second half of the week may be more active. Even though sentiment in Turkey’s flat steel market before the recent holiday had been rather negative and many buyers believed further discounts would be granted, prices from local producers and re-rollers seem to have stabilized, at least for now.
On the short sea side, workable prices for ex-Romania HMS I/II 80:20 scrap stand at around $363-367/mt CFR, declining by $2/mt.
Meanwhile, global economic growth has been estimated at 3.2 percent in 2023 and is projected to continue at the same pace in 2024 and 2025, according to the World Economic Outlook report published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Nevertheless, the projection for global growth in 2024 and 2025 is below the historical annual average of 3.8 percent, reflecting restrictive monetary policies and the withdrawal of fiscal support and the ongoing effects from the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.