This week’s exclusive SteelOrbis survey of US scrap market participants finds most still see March scrap pricing sideways, versus week ago calls for sideways to potentially down, as weather continues to improve, likely boosting the flow of scrap into local supply yards, market insiders told SteelOrbis.
During the period leading up to the recent February buy-cycle scrap negotiations, record cold temperatures and snow and ice storms across more than 30 states stunted yard scrap inflows while icy roads and frozen rivers reduced the ability to transport prompt scrap to markets. Midwest Ohio Valley shredded scrap prices rose on average $30/gt to $445-450/gt ($452-456/mt).
“We’re hearing sideways for March and potentially lower for April,” stated one Detroit-based supplier. “Inflows are starting to really pick up from about 2 weeks ago when the weather was a complete disaster. Now that we’ve gotten through that, inflows are quite a bit more manageable.”
“There’s lots of sideways talk for March, maybe even down slightly,” added one Midwest mill scrap buyer. “I think inflows are solid, with plenty of material available.”
According to the 6-10 day temperature outlook from the US National Weather Service’s (NWS) Climate Prediction Center, temperatures over the period across much of the US are expected above normal, while portions of the US Northeast could see near-normal to below-normal temperatures. Much of the US, with the exception of the US South, is forecast for above-normal precipitation, with much of the US Southeast forecast for near-normal precipitation during the period. Insiders told SteelOrbis expected moderation of weather to more seasonal norms will allow scrap suppliers and mills more time to build depleted inventory levels ahead of March and later April supply negotiations.
Based on a current sideways call for March scrap, US Ohio Valley prime busheling scrap could settle near its $30/gt higher February settlement at $445-452/gt ($452-462/mt), while March shredded material could finish near its $30/gt higher February finish at $445-450/gt ($452-456/mt). In the cut grades, a sideways expectation for P&S scrap near $421-431/gt ($427-437/mt) is likely, following its $20/gt February gain. March HMS, which also rose $20/gt this month, is likely to settle at $385-405/gt ($390-410/mt), scrap insiders told SteelOrbis.
In the US Northeast, a current sideways March expectation could yield busheling scrap near $420-420/gt, following its recent $30/gt February gains. Shredded scrap, which also rose $30/gt, could finish near $395-405/gt ($400-410/mt), while P&S and HMS grades, which both saw $20/gt February price increases, could finish near $350-360/gt ($355-365/mt), and $365-380/gt ($370-385/mt), respectively.
