While Turkey’s import scrap market has had a relatively silent week, the sentiment in the market has changed slightly. There were positive expectations when last week ended, with most market sources anticipating HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices would hit $370/mt CFR and above for ex-US material.
However, Turkish mills have been holding back from paying such levels for scrap. US-based suppliers were offering at $372-373/mt CFR, market sources told SteelOrbis, but they have failed to find buyers for now and the market is in a standstill. There are several Turkish mills that need scrap and there are several sellers offering cargoes, while the number of sellers has even increased compared to last week. But the diverse scrap price ideas of buyers and sellers is a challenge to be overcome. “Turkey needs at least ten more cargoes before Christmas starts,” one seller said, though not everyone agrees. “I believe Turkey may buy five more cargoes for January shipment and then stop for the holidays,” another European scrap seller said. “I am focusing on the steel side and what I see is not meaningful. I think we have hit the peak and another push for an increase is very difficult,” a seller of US and European scrap said.
Under the current conditions, the deep sea benchmark HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices in CFR terms have remained stable week on week. The prices are also stable month on month in the deep sea segment, with prices being in the range of $358-368/mt CFR.
Earlier this week, US ferrous scrap prices during the December 2025 buy-cycle negotiations in the US Ohio Valley and US Northeast regions settled $10-20/gt ($10-20/mt) higher than equivalent November values, based on improved domestic and export scrap demand, and a reported growing paucity of supply, market insiders told SteelOrbis this week. Insiders said US domestic demand was improved this month as more steel capacity returned to active production following the completion of yearly maintenance operations.
While it is still early, following the recent higher December scrap settled prices, January scrap is seen continuing the recent higher trend for US domestic scrap, market insiders told SteelOrbis late this week.
“The talk from good sized shredders in Ohio is up $50/gt for January because the weather is bad and it’s cold,” said one Midwest scrap supplier. “It’s a bit too early to tell, but of course all the dealers are predicting up in January, but it can’t be up as much, given that December [already] traded $20/gt higher,” said another Midwest-based scrap insider.
“There seems to be a lot of optimism for next year in general,” reflected another scrap market insider. “I would guesstimate that January should be up [more than $30/gt],” he said. “We see it sideways to slightly higher,” said another mill-based scrap buyer. “We’re hearing up $20/gt possibly they are already saying, but who knows,” said a final Midwest-based scrap supplier.
European scrap markets have shown different trends this week. Sources in Italy have reported a slowdown in trading activities and “no significant developments”, as they expect nothing new before the Christmas holidays.
In Spain, mills’ average purchase prices have marked increases by €10/mt in November compared to the previous month, but sources have reported that requests from buyers are slow.
In Germany, upward movements in scrap purchase prices have been recorded, with one producer increasing its scrap purchase prices by up to €15/mt for some categories. On average, however, steel producers have increased their scrap purchase prices by €5-10/mt.
Finally, although scrap purchase prices from mills in Poland have increased by approximately €15/mt in December compared to the previous month, it is difficult to find suppliers, and many of them are already out of the market for the winter holidays.
The leading Japanese EAF-based steel producer Tokyo Steel has announced a cut in its shindachi scrap procurement prices at its Tokyo Bay yard, leaving prices in all other regions stable. As the Japanese yen has regained some strength against the US dollar, dollar-based quotations have increased by around $3-4/mt, with the only price decline observed for Tokyo Bay.
The general price range for H2 grade scrap has remained stable at JPY 39,500-44,500/mt ($254-286/mt) depending on the mill. The Takamatsu region still represents the lower end of the general price range, with the Tahara, Okayama, Kyushu and Tokyo Bay plants still representing the upper end. Including the changes in the exchange rates, the dollar-based prices have moved up by $3/mt on the lower end and by $4/mt on the upper end as compared to the levels announced on November 20.
The uptrend observed in Japan’s Kanto scrap export tender since July on Japanese yen basis has continued into December. However, due to the depreciation of the Japanese yen against the US dollar, the dollar-based price in the latest deal has softened a little. Over the past month, the Japanese yen has moved from 154.25 against the US dollar to JPY 156.7 as of today, December 10, influencing the dollar price in the latest tender.
In the Kanto export tender, the highest bid was at JPY 45,688/mt ($292/mt) FAS, JPY 728/mt higher than last month, with the dollar-based price down $2/mt from last month’s $294/mt, taking exchange rate changes into account. The FAS price translates to JPY 46,688/mt FOB or $298/mt FOB, stable as compared to last month. The total tonnage of the cargo, which will be shipped to Vietnam, is 15,000 mt.
There have been few import scrap offers shared with the Taiwanese market in the past week. Ex-US scrap sellers have been focusing on other regions, though some increases have been seen in their prices. Japanese sellers are once again retreating from the market due to exchange fluctuations.
After offering HMS I/II (80:20) scrap in containers at $300-305/mt CFR last week, US suppliers have disappeared from the Taiwanese market. Japanese sellers once again took a step back from the Taiwanese market this week. “The Japanese yen has not been stable since December started. Market players waited for the Kanto tender and now they expect the Asian scrap market to move sideways amid weak demand,” a source said.
There is currently a large gap between the price ideas of Vietnamese scrap buyers and those of overseas scrap suppliers. As steel demand in Vietnam remains sluggish amid harsh weather conditions, scrap buyers have also become cautious.
Over the past week, ex-US bulk HMS I/II 80:20 scrap offers to Vietnam have softened by an average of $2.5/mt to $350/mt CFR.
While Japanese H2 grade scrap offers to Vietnam remain at $325-330/mt CFR, the workable level for this grade is expected to be around $320-322/mt CFR.