Turkey’s import scrap market has finally started to give signals of a recovery. Market sources surveyed by SteelOrbis during the SteelOrbis Spring 2025 Conference & 92nd IREPAS Meeting held in Athens on April 27-29 indicated that the ideas of buyers and sellers differed regarding deep sea scrap prices, with only a couple of deals heard during and after the conference.
One of the deals was done during IREPAS, from St. Petersburg to Izmir for HMS I/II 80:20 scrap at $327/mt CFR, confirming the upward movement, with ex-Baltic HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices increasing by $4.5/mt. SteelOrbis hears that, as of today, May 2, ex-US scrap offers stand in the range of $335-340/mt CFR, while some buyers report that they have already heard offers from the US at around $345/mt CFR. Meanwhile, one European scrap seller was offering HMS I/II 80:20 scrap at around $330/mt CFR on Wednesday, April 30, but the seller has now taken a step back due to expectations of higher prices.
Germany-based sub-collectors report that the collection prices at European export yards have risen from €230/mt DAP recorded earlier last week to €245-250/mt DAP this week. As European exporters failed to find the tonnages they needed, they had to increase their bids to maintain local scrap flow to their yards. One of the European scrap suppliers said it is impossible for them to make a profit unless they achieve $340-345/mt CFR Turkey levels in the next sale. At the moment, such a jump from the previous levels to $340s/mt CFR for ex-EU cargoes seems unlikely to SteelOrbis, though $330/mt CFR and above seems workable for some Turkish mills. Turkish mills will start to buy cargoes for June shipment and have a long way to go before they complete their deals for this shipment period. Several inquiries have been made by Turkish mills following the IREPAS Conference and next week is expected to be livelier.
Sources from Turkish mills report that there is an acceleration in the local rebar market, with the demand which failed to be seen last month making an appearance. A source commented, “We are not buying scrap yet, but are waiting to see rebar sales first. But they have accelerated in our region and prices have recovered slightly too. This is a good signal. How long will this be maintained? We will have to wait and see.” The billet alternatives are now found to be less attractive, with their delivery period considered to be long compared to scrap. “Scrap and billet prices are almost on a par. There is no need to wait longer for billets when we can use scrap instead,” another source said. As there is still a lack of confirmed deals from the EU and the US, SteelOrbis has revised its HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices for these origins to $320-325/mt CFR and $327-330/mt CFR, respectively, though higher price levels are considered to be possible in the coming week.
Under the current conditions, the deep sea benchmark HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices in CFR terms have increased by 2.04 percent week on week. The prices are now 14.19 percent lower month on month in the deep sea segment, with prices being in the range of $320-330/mt CFR.
The outlook for May domestic scrap pricing in the US continued lower this week as reduced exports abroad as a result of global steel tariffs and burgeoning domestic supply continues to depress price expectations for May buy-cycle scrap negotiations which will begin next week, market insiders told SteelOrbis.
Insiders said the availability and use of cheap billet from Asia continues to reduce scrap demand from Turkey and other steel producing nations, even though lead times on the product are significantly longer from Asia. Insiders say new carbon targets in the international steel industry are causing mills to focus on EAFs instead of traditional blast furnaces, which could increase the need for scrap and in some regions lead to plans that may end up in measures curbing scrap exports in the long term.
May shredded scrap in the US is expected to settle $40/gt ($41/mt) less than its April counterpart at an estimated $375-380/gt ($381-386/mt) on a delivered to mill basis. Since shredded prices peaked recently following the March buy-cycle at an average of $439.50/gt ($447/mt), domestic shredded scrap prices have declined on average by 9.32 percent to the current $398.50/gt ($402/mt).
As for other domestic steel scrap grades, May prime busheling scrap is seen down $20/gt ($20/mt) from April at $445-470/gt ($453-478/mt) delivered to mill, while cut grades HMS and P&S are seen about $30/gt ($30/mt) less at $335-355/gt ($340-361/mt) and $371-381/gt ($377-387/mt), respectively, scrap insiders told SteelOrbis.
No major changes have been reported in the European scrap market after the SteelOrbis Spring 2025 Conference & 92nd IREPAS Meeting held in Athens on April 27-29. Scrap purchase prices in Germany will probably see a strong decline in May as mills will have to adjust to new market levels. As for exports, sources report that HMS I/II 80:20 scrap collection prices to export yards have moved up again to around €250/mt DAP, compared to €230/mt DAP last week.
Italian mills are not buying and official prices are still high, but, according to one source, mills will try to reduce their scrap purchase prices by at least €50-60/mt after May 5. Furthermore, the Made In Steel event in Milan on May 6-8 will represent a unique opportunity for Italian and European market players to meet and discuss their future intentions.
As for Poland, inflows of scrap are standing at normal levels and scrap yard stocks are unusually high due to the continuous struggles with exports caused by the unfavorable euro-dollar exchange rate. Regarding exports, no changes have been reported for HMS I/II 80:20 scrap collection prices at yards, which remain at €260/mt DAP, unchanged week on week.
Taiwan’s import scrap prices have declined further this week. Market sources report that the drop in the international scrap market is causing local scrap quotations to move down, while trading in the local rebar market is sluggish.
Offers for ex-US HMS I/II (80:20) scrap in containers to Taiwan have moved down from the range of $295-303/mt CFR a week earlier to $285-295/mt. Actual deal prices have also moved down, by $5-7/mt to $285-290/mt CFR.
Due to the long Labor Day holiday, no offers have been shared for Japanese H1/2 (50:50) scrap bulk, market sources report.
The downtrend of Vietnam’s import scrap market has continued this week as sentiment in the international scrap market has mostly remained negative. Market sources report that the fluctuating exchange rates against the US dollar are also not helping Vietnamese buyers or the suppliers in Japan.
Over the past week, offers for Japanese H2 scrap to Vietnam have declined by $5-7/mt to $325-328/mt CFR. Bids from Vietnamese buyers are approximately $10-15/mt lower than the offers. Market sources report that Japanese shredded scrap offers to Vietnam are at around $345/mt CFR. Ex-US bulk HMS I/II 80:20 scrap offers to Vietnam have moved down to $330-340/mt CFR.
As compared to March 21, the Tokyo Bay FAS-based price for H2 grade scrap has declined by JPY 500/mt to JPY 41,500/mt ($287/mt), down by $11/mt. The FOB-based export price is now at JPY 42,500/mt ($294/mt) for the grade in question, down by $12/mt.
Import scrap prices in Pakistan have declined further this week, pressured by sluggish local demand and limited buying interest. Offers for ex-EU/UK shredded scrap have dropped to $368–372/mt CFR, while ex-UAE material has been heard at around $380/mt CFR or slightly below. Despite some domestic supply disruptions due to border issues, local scrap prices have risen by PKR 3,000–4,000/mt, while rebar prices have also firmed up slightly. Market players say the outlook will depend on global scrap trends, particularly in Turkey, and a rebound in domestic construction demand.
In Bangladesh, import scrap offers have declined further this week in line with global market trends. Shredded scrap prices from multiple origins have dropped to around $380/mt CFR, while HMS grades saw similar corrections, with prices in ex-US bulk deals falling to $350/mt CFR. Despite the price drops, overall trading activity has remained limited. The market continues to display cautious stability, with moderate demand and buyers hesitating to make significant purchases amid global volatility. Adding to the challenge, rising utility costs - particularly gas and electricity prices - are putting pressure on mills’ operations. Smaller and medium-sized mills are reported to be reducing production to manage costs. “The short-term outlook remains uncertain,” a market source said, adding, “With global scrap prices still fluctuating, rising freight from key origins, and domestic cost pressures mounting, buyers are cautious. Unless domestic demand picks up meaningfully, prices may remain under downward pressure in the near term.”