No major changes have been reported in the European scrap market after the SteelOrbis Spring 2025 Conference & 92nd IREPAS Meeting held in Athens on April 27-29. Market participants are still very cautious, and buyers and sellers seem to be testing each other, trying to understand how far they can push. Market participants are still worried about the impact of numerous factors on the market trend, with everyone agreeing that it is very hard to make accurate predictions.
Most sources are sure that the import scrap market has hit the bottom in Turkey, so there will be no more decreases. However, cheap billets from Asia remain the leading source for Turkey’s steel production at the moment, resulting in an absence of scrap deals.
The scenario is quite different when it comes to Europe. As European countries’ scrap markets consistently lag behind the Turkish scrap market, it is very likely more declines will be seen in the next round of negotiations. Scrap purchase prices in Germany only moved down by around €5/mt on average in April, and so the market will probably see a strong decline in May as mills will have to adjust to new market levels. As for exports, sources report that HMS I/II 80:20 scrap collection prices to export yards have moved up again to around €250/mt DAP, compared to €230/mt DAP last week.
Italy it is still in holiday mood. Italian mills are not buying and official prices are still high, but, according to one source, mills will try to reduce their scrap purchase prices by at least €50-60/mt after May 5. Whether scrap sellers accept such a level remains to be seen, as May is a full working month and producers will need to buy scrap if they want to stick to their production schedules. Consequently, it is unlikely that the decline will continue further. Plus, the Made In Steel event in Milan on May 6-8 will represent a unique opportunity for Italian and European market players to meet and discuss their future intentions. This means that the most significant changes will probably be seen after the end of the first week of May.
As for Poland, inflows of scrap are standing at normal levels and scrap yard stocks are unusually high due to the continuous struggles with exports caused by the unfavorable euro-dollar exchange rate. Sources have reported a pessimistic outlook for May. “Everyone will be back to work on May 5 [after Labor Day holiday], so until that date everything is very quiet. We expect -PLN 100-150/mt [in scrap purchase prices] for the next [round of] contracts,” a local source said. Regarding exports, no changes have been reported for HMS I/II 80:20 scrap collection prices at yards, which remain at €260/mt DAP, unchanged week on week.
In conclusion, most market players agree that the situation is still too uncertain and the only thing one can do is wait and see how the new elements that are coming into play will shape steel market developments.
€1 = PLN 4.27 (European Central Bank, April 29)