The mood in Turkey’s import scrap market remains positive, with deep sea scrap prices moving up in each new deal. Market sources think there is more room for a further rise in prices despite the significant increases already recorded in the market.
SteelOrbis has learned that an ex-US scrap deal has been done by an Izmir-based producer for HMS I/II 80:20 scrap at $377/mt CFR, with shredded and bonus grade scrap at $397/mt CFR. As a result, the SteelOrbis ex-US HMS I/I 80:20 scrap reference price for Turkey has increased by $2/mt CFR, from the anticipated range of $374-376/mt CFR for this grade after the ex-UK deal reported on October 1.
Meanwhile, there is a rumour of an ex-EU booking done by a Marmara-based producer, with HMS I/II 80:20 scrap standing at $374/mt CFR. This information was not confirmed by the buyer or the seller by the time of publication. However, several sources report that this price level is currently acceptable for this grade. SteelOrbis has revised its ex-EU scrap reference price to an average of $374/mt CFR.
For Romanian HMS I/II 80:20, Turkish mills are now willing to pay $365/mt CFR, while sellers are not accepting bids at around $360/mt CFR anymore. “Workable levels for short sea are in the range of $365-370/mt CFR Turkey,” a source reported. The upper end of the range is currently represented by ex-Adriatic cargoes, though market sources believe this level will become normal for Romania very soon. An ex-Cyprus prompt cargo was also sold to Turkey, at $355/mt CFR.
Scrap suppliers are feeling very confident today, October 2. Most of them anticipate deep sea scrap prices will exceed $380/mt CFR. “US suppliers are already offering $390s/mt CFR for HMS I/II 80:20 scrap,” a seller reported. Another seller said that most scrap suppliers have taken a step back and are monitoring the upward trend of prices. “Prices may hit $380-385/mt CFR in the coming days, but I am not sure if this trend is sustainable,” a seller of ex-EU and ex-US scrap said. One European supplier was more confident, affirming, “This uptrend will continue at least two or three weeks.” Meanwhile, a source at a major Turkish mill admitted that sellers have been quiet today, while stating that deep sea scrap prices are set to increase at least towards $380/mt CFR. Today, an Amsterdam-based scrap exporter raised its bids for scrap collection to €295/mt DAP, SteelOrbis has learned. This exporter was bidding at €285/mt DAP towards the end of last week. A German sub-collector said they are still expecting European domestic scrap prices to soften in October, “Having said that, I shall also add that we are not as sure as we were last week.” Several others said the situation in China and scrap demand in Turkey should be monitored closely. Another source at a major Turkish mill admitted that sellers are taking a step back from the market as of today, adding, “There are also some rumors circulating in the market which are not true. I would not be surprised if US suppliers ask for prices at around $385/mt CFR. But I think sellers may wait a couple of days before returning to the market this week.” Some European scrap suppliers also point out that demand from the Indian subcontinent is recovering slowly. Import scrap prices in India have increased amid a higher number of inquiries, while new scrap offer prices to Pakistan have posted a slight increase since the rebound seen in Chinese prices. Billet offers to Turkey have also moved up sharply, by $20-25/mt compared to the levels recorded on September 26. Ex-Asia billet offers at $520-525/mt CFR are not considered workable in Turkey, despite the rise in local Turkish billet prices to $620-635/mt ex-works and in Turkish billet export prices to $600-610/mt FOB. Turkish rebar producers are seeking to increase their export prices, partially due to the acceptance of higher import scrap prices, but also due to the bullishness in China and limited domestic supply. Currently, ex-Turkey rebar prices vary at $600-610/mt FOB for late October- November shipments, versus $590-595/mt FOB a week ago.