Given concerns regarding supply shortages which have been prevailing among insiders in the global coking coal market lately, most market insiders remain bullish as regards the future market outlook. Specifically, the latest bid for a March shipment of 75,000 mt of a cargo of premium low-volatility hard coking coal (HCCLV) has reached $420/mt FOB Australia, up $10/mt compared to the previous levels. “
Notwithstanding some uncertainties in China, the global market is moving up further,” a Europe-based trader commented. “Traders still maintain a bullish view. Although I think FOB Australia prices have already seen a record high beyond $410/ mt, there may be still an upside, given the scarce supplies for both February and March shipments. I would say prices will be stronger throughout the first quarter, but may ease from the second quarter onwards as supply will be improving,” a Singapore-based trader said commenting on current developments in the segment. A representative at an Indian met coke producer highlighted the tight supply of material from Australia, mentioning that they have stepped up their efforts in investigating offers from the US market. “Steel needs to go up to sustain the ongoing rise in raw material needs,” he added.
Meanwhile, in China offers for ex-US hard coking coal Buchanan have been heard at $399/mt CFR, increasing by $74/mt compared to levels fixed in deals in early January. Meanwhile, ex-Russia coking coal with 10.5-12.5 percent ash content has been available at $270/mt CFR at lowest, SteelOrbis has heard. Ex-US mid-volatility PCI has been offered at $285/mt CFR, according to sources.
In its turn, in the futures market in China prices have rebounded due to a certain decline in stocks, following quite a significant decline during the previous few days. Accordingly, on January 18 the price for hard coking coal in the most-traded contract on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) surged by 5.2 percent compared to January 17, to RMB 2,312/mt ($364/mt). Meanwhile, coke futures prices rose to RMB 2,992.5/mt ($471/mt), up 2.7 percent within the same period of time.
$1 = RMB 6.35187