Will news on Chinese rebate provide expected boost for Turkish rebar exports?

According to market sources, Turkish exporters' rebar offers to overseas markets have been in the range of $510-520/mt FOB during the current week, while activity in Turkey's rebar export markets has been relatively slacker in the past one and a half to two weeks due to the Christmas and New Year holidays in the US and Europe. In the given period, rebar export deals from Turkey to the US have been concluded in the price range of $500-510/mt FOB, while some Turkish rebar producers have offered at $520/mt FOB following this deal, but this price has not been accepted.
 
Meanwhile, Turkish rebar producers' price offers to the UAE, which is one of their most important rebar export destinations, are currently in the range of $505-510/mt CFR on theoretical weight basis. However, it is stated that buyers from the UAE are trying to get Turkish producers to bring their prices down to $500/mt CFR or lower levels, on theoretical weight basis.
 
As Turkish steel exporters had been expecting, the Chinese government has decided to remove the 13 percent export tax rebate on boron-added steel products beginning from January 1, 2015. The decision is expected to help Turkish steel producers to increase their exports and to reclaim shares in the export markets which they had lost to Chinese market players. Turkish rebar producers have not yet revised their offers since most of their export markets have been on holiday , while the course they will take in terms of pricing will become clearer next week. However, the general expectation is that Turkish rebar export prices will move upwards with the support of increasing scrap prices and that Turkish rebar producers will seek to keep their prices at the increased levels even if demand is low.  
 
There are already rumors in the market that Chinese players may seek another way to continue to take advantage of a tax rebate for their exports. It has been said that Chinese steel producers may just add chrome to steel instead of boron just in order to get around the Chinese government's decision to remove the tax rebate for boron-added steel products.