Back in September when US rebar mills petitioned the US DOC for an investigation into Turkish and Mexican rebar imports, many traders scoffed at the idea that the move should affect their bookings and continued placing orders from disputed sources. However, now that there's a chance the ITC will rule in favor of US mills in the "critical circumstances" hearing set for February, which would set retroactive duties all the way back from the initial filing date, order inquiries for Turkish rebar have all but dried up. As for tonnage currently in transit to the US, traders tell SteelOrbis that they are worried about unloading positions, and if they get desperate there could be some majorly attractive deals available at the port.
Nevertheless, US mills are reportedly not concerned with import rebar's potential "swan song" pricing with tight production schedules, steady demand, and rising raw material costs in their corner. After Nucor "caught up" with Gerdau's price level for December, sources expect another increase to be announced soon. And whether it comes in at a modest $0.50 cwt. ($10/nt or $11/mt) or more ambitious $1.50 cwt. ($30/nt or $33/mt), the general consensus is that anything will absorb into the market without much fuss. Until then, spot prices for US domestic rebar remain in the range of $33.00-$34.00 cwt. ($660-$680/nt or $728-$750/mt) ex-mill.