Those in the US rebar market who chose to wait out Gerdau Long Steel North America’s $30/nt ($1.50 cwt. or $33/mt) price increase last week chose wisely--within days, Nucor responded with a more moderate $20/nt ($1.00 cwt. or $22/mt) increase, causing Gerdau to rescind its original announcement and follow Nucor’s lead. Now that the price direction is settled, spot prices for US domestic rebar are in the range of $34.50-$35.50 cwt. ($690-$710/nt or $750-$782/mt) ex-mill. So far, steady demand for rebar in the US has supported moderate price firming, but uptrending scrap has also helped even though US mills “officially” divorced their monthly price changes from raw material movements. Therefore, when and if scrap prices neutralize or dip downward once warmer weather increases availability, rebar price increase absorption might not be as easy as it has been in the last few months.
However, wariness about imports has also been a factor in the ongoing US domestic rebar uptrend, and the outcome of the trade case against Turkey and Mexico will undoubtedly have an impact, especially if Turkey remains determined to offer attractive deals to the US. This week, Turkish mills dropped their offers on the CFR level to traders, although it’s too soon to make an impact on sales prices in the US. Traders tell SteelOrbis that US customers are intrigued, but still worried about the trade case, so even offers at last week’s range of $31.50-$32.50 cwt. ($630-$650/nt or $694-$717/mt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports are not garnering many actual orders. Elsewhere, offers from Portugal still stand at $32.00-$33.00 cwt. ($640-$660/nt or $705-$728/mt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports and Taiwanese offers are stable at $32.50-$33.50 cwt. ($650-$670/nt or $717-$739/mt)DDP loaded truck in US West Coast ports.