While opinions last week on the near-future of the US domestic rebar market varied greatly, many sources tell SteelOrbis that the most likely impact of this month’s scrap price downtrend on rebar prices will be “nothing.” In the past, a $15-$20/ton drop in shredded scrap prices would trigger an immediate decrease in rebar prices, but with demand strong following the Labor Day holiday and future import orders taking a backseat to remaining positions at the port, sources say mills have “no reason” to adjust current rebar spot prices.
However, it is likely that mills will keep a firm grip on the current range of $27.00-$29.00 cwt. ($540-$600/nt or $595-$640/mt) ex-mill. While some deals below the range have been heard for the largest distributors, there is “virtually no chance” of deals spreading to the rest of the market, according to one smaller distributor source. As such, US domestic rebar prices are expected to remain stable until outside factors like inclement weather start to influence market activity.