As predicted last week, US domestic rebar mills wasted no time announcing another round of price increases on the heels of their late October $1.00 cwt. ($20/nt or $22/mt) price bump. CMC led the charge for the new $1.50 cwt. ($30/nt or $33/mt) price increase Monday, followed today by Nucor and Gerdau. And because the announcements are effective immediately, the spot price range for US domestic rebar is now in the range of $27.50-$29.50 cwt. ($550-$590/nt or $606-$650/mt) ex-mill.
With prospects for December scrap prices pointing up and preliminary determinations in the trade case against Turkey, Taiwan and Japan due in mid-December, sources tell SteelOrbis that another price increase next month is “highly likely,” especially given how easily the latest price increases were absorbed into the market.
Other sources, meanwhile, are wary of a rebar price uptrend that’s “too sharp.” The annual Q1 rebar import flood is expected to be more substantial in 2017, at least in the early portion of the quarter, as last-minute import buys ahead of the trade case determinations start to arrive. An abundance of positions will, as usual, lead to severe price discounting—but sources say “it will get ugly” for US domestic mills if the margin between US spot prices and position tags is too wide.