Although many in the US domestic rebar market expected another transaction price increase in the last week, mills have held off from ramping up the trend further. Sources tell SteelOrbis that one of the primary reasons for the “change of heart” is moderated expectations for scrap prices in May. Early predictions pointed to another strong scrap uptrend, but the latest forecasts show a much milder $10 per ton increase, which isn’t enough to justify a third rebar price increase in the span of about a month.
However, this doesn’t mean spot prices won’t continue to firm. Domestic rebar prices didn’t rebound as fast as import offers near the end of the first quarter, and US mills still reportedly want to make up for lost margins last year. As such, the current spot range has narrowed on the low end by about $1.00 cwt. ($20/nt or $22/mt) within the last week, to $28.50-$30.50 cwt. ($570-$610/nt or $628-$672/mt) ex-mill—meaning deals are drying up for the largest customers.