After shredded scrap settled at a $40-$50/long ton drop this month, it is a given that US domestic rebar prices will decrease as well. However, there are varying opinions regarding how much the decrease will actually be--some sources insist that mills will only drop rebar transaction prices by $1.00 cwt. ($22/mt or $20/nt), while others think a $1.50 cwt. ($33/mt or $30/nt) drop is more realistic. Virtually no one, it should be noted, thinks that mills will drop rebar prices by the full scrap decrease, even though it would make the most sense considering current market demand. In June, spot prices fell below mills' official price decrease due to increasing customer pressure, and sources tell SteelOrbis that the situation could repeat this month as well. But on paper, mills seem resolved to appear on top of the market situation, not letting prices--which currently stand at $33.00-$34.00 cwt. ($728-$750/mt or $660-$680/nt) ex-mill--dip too much.
Meanwhile, interest in imports remains low, especially as the US domestic price trend is pointing firmly downward. Turkish import offers are still in the range of $30.50-$31.50 cwt. ($672-$694/mt or $610-$630/nt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports--unchanged in the last week--and seem poised to remain neutral for the time being; most of Turkey's rebar export prices have not moved in the last couple weeks. As for Mexican offers, traders expect prices--which currently mirror Turkey's--to drop below the $30.00 cwt. ($661/mt or $600/nt) DDP loaded truck delivered to US border states level very soon, perhaps by next week.