In an effort to maintain some stability in the market, US domestic rebar mills only dropped transaction prices by part of the scrap decrease this month. However, as predictions of another shredded scrap decrease next month deepen, mills might not be able to take such a moderate route again. Many sources still expect scrap to only drop by $15-$20/long ton in October, which, they say, would likely result in a neutral price move by US rebar mills. But others believe scrap prices could tumble by as much as $40/long ton--sources say mills would still be reluctant to bring rebar prices down that much, instead opting for a transaction price decrease of $1.00-$1.50 cwt. ($22-$33/mt or $20-$30/nt). But customers might not be too keen to accommodate two consecutive months of partial decreases, and could push to negotiate prices downward. Of course, until anything official is settled, US domestic spot prices will remain in the current range of $33.75-$34.75 cwt. ($744-$766/mt or $675-$695/nt) ex-mill--unchanged from last week.
Imports, meanwhile, are also stable from last week, with Turkish rebar offer prices hovering in the minimally-desirable range of $32.00-$33.00 cwt. ($705-$728/mt or $640-$660/nt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports. Some traders have even reported that they've offered Turkish rebar for slightly less, but demand is so weak they didn't get any takers. Mexican rebar offers are also unchanged this week in the range of $32.00-$33.00 cwt. DDP loaded truck delivered to US border states, which has yet to mirror this month's downtrend in US prices--sources say that Mexican mills are waiting to see how US prices move in October before making anything official, but in the meantime, there is a good chance they will negotiate for lower prices.