Even though the full price increase for September shipments wasn't officially implemented until the end of last week, US rebar mills had been getting it almost immediately after announcing it due to early predictions of another scrap increase in September. However, as predictions have shifted to a more likely sideways trend (with some even talking about a slight downtrend), rebar mills have still been able to hang on to their early success. Sources tell SteelOrbis that in the event of scrap trending neutral, spot prices for rebar will remain in the range of $34.50-$35.50 cwt. ($761-$782/mt or $690-$710/nt) ex-mill, as mills are reportedly determined to not dip below the range, even for large customers. In fact, it would take a substantial scrap drop for mills to budge.
As for imports, traders tell SteelOrbis that Turkish rebar prices might be looking up, although the general offer price range of $32.00-$33.00 cwt. ($705-$728/mt or $640-$660/nt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports has not changed in the last week. So far, traders have booked a few orders with smaller US customers for approximately $0.50 cwt. ($11/mt or $10/nt) above the range, but it's not enough to qualify as a distinctive uptrend quite yet. Likewise, Mexican mills have also not changed their offer prices in the last week, still ranging from $32.00-$33.00 cwt. ($705-$728/mt or $640-$660/nt) DDP loaded truck delivered to US border states. Mexican rebar remains a more attractive option, according to traders, due mainly to shorter lead times--already, US import data show a sharp uptrend in rebar imports from Mexico in August: 31,281 mt (license data) compared to 17,369 mt in July (preliminary census data).