While predictions of a “last minute” price increase in the US domestic rebar market did not come to fruition in the final weeks of 2016, sources tell SteelOrbis that an increase is still on the horizon, although the amount will depend heavily on January scrap prices.
Many sources are expecting something in the range of $1.00-$1.50 cwt. ($20-$30/nt or $22-$33/mt), although not much more than that, even if US domestic shredded scrap prices surge up by $40 per ton or more. However, considering US domestic rebar mills do not “officially” base their price policies on scrap movements, some sources say “anything can happen.” A substantial increase would likely have little trouble absorbing into the market if the late-2016 rebar price increases are any indication.
For now, spot prices for US domestic rebar are stable in the range of $28.75-$30.75 cwt. ($575-$615/nt or $634-678/mt) ex-mill, reflecting no change since the holidays. However, the specter of Turkish rebar import arrivals still looms large, and sources say a flood of competitively-priced positions at the ports could give US customers leverage to negotiate somewhat with US rebar mills.