While many in the US import rebar market find it hard to believe that Turkish rebar offers could slip much further, the latest reports from traders indicate another dip this week. Traders are now offering Turkish rebar in the range of $20.25-$21.25 cwt. ($405-$415/nt or $446-$469/mt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports, reflecting a $0.50 cwt. ($10/nt or $11/mt) drop since our last report a week ago. Sources tell SteelOrbis that certain Turkish mills are using low-priced Chinese billets in addition to imported scrap for their rebar production, which means the price bottom is no longer tied strictly to the raw material market. Next week should show another minor dip, sources say, putting offer prices below $20.00 cwt. ($400/nt or $441/mt) for the first time since SteelOrbis started reporting the price in January 2006.
As for the US domestic rebar market, speculation of a transaction price decrease has vanished, replaced with an uneasy impatience about what mills will do next. With price decreases already announced for other long products such as wire rod and merchant bar, it would make sense to follow those trends with rebar, but at least one source says that mills might be mulling over the idea of a minor increase. At this time, that would seem more than a little unreasonable, but US mills have been known to surprise the market from time to time. In the meantime, spot prices are still mostly in the lower end of the $31.50-$32.50 cwt. ($630-$650/nt or $694-$717/mt) ex-mill range.