A coalition of rebar producers in the US filed an antidumping petition today against rebar imports from Turkey, Japan and Taiwan, including a CVD accusation against Turkey alone despite the US DOC issuing zero percent AD margins and marginal CVD margins against Turkey in the trade case that was settled two years ago.
In fact, many sources believe the filing is targeting Turkey specifically, with Japan and Taiwan added in so it doesn’t appear to be a “vendetta.” While offer prices in the last few months from the named Asian sources have fallen within $5-$10/mt of Turkish offers, the discrepancy in tonnage levels is telling. According to the latest import data, the US has imported a staggering 1,050,411 mt of Turkish rebar year-to-date (census data from Jan-July and license data from August through Sept. 20). Comparatively, imports in the same period from Japan have only reached 291,677 mt while imports from Taiwan totaled 101,530 mt.
Although the US ITC is expected to issue a preliminary determination in November with a DOC decision within six months, the petition alleges dumping margins at 86.12 percent for Turkey, 206.17 percent for Japan and 104.30 percent for Taiwan. While the petition did not include a value for Turkey’s alleged subsidies, over 20 subsidy programs were identified.
In response, sources expect a “stimulation in sales” downstream, with distributors and large fabricators snapping up ground stock as well as booking “last minute” future orders before critical circumstances can be alleged. And while this would put traders in a position to increase their sales prices, sources say most transactions should remain hovering around the range of $19.00-$20.00 cwt. ($380-$400/nt or $419-$441/mt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports—reflecting a slight downtick of $0.50 cwt. ($10/nt or $11/mt) since last week, although the decrease was factored into the range prior to the official filing.
And as for offers from offshore mills to US-based traders, sources say “all offers are off the table” for now, although in a push to send tons before preliminary results are announced, mills from Turkey at least are likely to increase prices, sources say.