Although import rebar offer prices to the US are holding steady this week, traders tell SteelOrbis that prices are under pressure from downtrending scrap prices, and if foreign mills get desperate enough for orders, they'll be forced to drop prices further. Turkish rebar, in particular, is very likely to lower offer prices to the US in the coming weeks--traders say their customers are aware that the market has not yet hit bottom, and will wait until prices dip beneath the current range of $32.00-$33.00 cwt. ($705-$728/mt or $640-$660/nt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports before making serious inquiries. Mexican rebar offers are also unchanged from last week, but although interest is slightly better for their offer prices of $31.75-$32.75 cwt. ($700-$722/mt or $635-$655/nt) DDP loaded truck delivered to US border states, order activity is not exactly robust. Because Mexican import rebar prices tend to mirror US domestic rebar price movements, there is a good chance offers will decline if the US domestic trend turns downward next month.
So far, that seems to be the most likely scenario for US domestic rebar--decreasing export scrap prices could very likely drag down US domestic scrap prices next month, and because US rebar spot prices have been softening amid neutral scrap prices this month, sources expect mills to lower transaction prices in June. For now, spot prices are unchanged in the last week at $35.25-$36.25 cwt. ($777-$799/mt or $705-$725/nt) ex-mill, but sources don't think there will be any major movements until scrap prices are announced.