US import long steel prices were stable to week-ago levels, as global steel buyers remained cautious and mostly sidelined waiting on the results of the latest diplomatic talks aimed at securing a permanent ceasefire between the US and Iran, market insiders told SteelOrbis.
On April 13, following six weeks of conflict, a temporary ceasefire was put in place, which later included a US-led blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, where 20-25 percent of global oil supplies flow. When oil prices spiked, and combined with sporadic Iranian attacks on shipping in the strait, many global shippers raised freight rates as much as 40 percent. In addition to rising freight and insurance costs, steel suppliers have since put in place fuel surcharges to offset rising energy prices, that also have contributed to increased global steel prices.
For the moment, US President Trump has put on hold plans to resume military operations, giving peace talks “a few more days,” he said. Global oil prices remained elevated on May 22, with Brent crude oil traded between $104-$106 per barrel, following Trump’s mid-week warning that a military assault on Iran could happen “at a moment’s notice,” if an agreement isn’t reached soon.
On the supply side, global steel importers told SteelOrbis this week that one of the effects of the ongoing hostilities with Iran is that fewer shipments of steel have been booked over the past several months, meaning that domestic supply could continue to tighten, even as imports remain sharply down as a result of ongoing 50 percent US import tariffs.
“Since the beginning of the war in late February, new steel bookings have fallen off sharply, so supply could really tighten toward the end of Q3 and the beginning of Q4,” said one US Midwest-based long steel insider. “Lead times on new steel (orders) from South Korea to the US are now averaging about 4 months.”
On the US Gulf Coast, import rebar on a loaded truck basis remained stable, following previous $0.50/cwt., oil-inspired weekly increases to $46.00-47.00/cwt., ($920-940/nt or $1,014-1,036/mt), up from $45.50-46.50/cwt., ($910-930/nt or $1,003-1,025/mt) two weeks earlier. US East Coast import rebar pricing on a loaded truck basis also remained steady at $46.50-47.50/cwt., ($930-950/nt or $1,025-1,047/mt), up from $46.00-47.00/cwt., ($920-940/nt or $1,014-1,036/mt) two weeks earlier as oil prices rose.
On the domestic side, US long steel prices are expected to remain steady to up as a result of solid domestic demand from infrastructure builds and expectations for continued strong raw material scrap prices combined with more limited supply as imports remain reduced. This week, US mills reported steel production levels in excess of 82 percent capacity, the highest levels reported since mid-2021.
“In the US, I still think there’s more gas in the tank,” the Midwest insider said in reaction to questions about domestic long steel price levels going forward. “We might continue to see additional mill price increases for both rebar and wire rod over the next 3-4 months.” He continued, “After that, the fear is that pricing could collapse like it did following a brief panic-driven price spike in global steel prices that happened as a result of the escalation of the Ukraine war in 2022.”
On the steel import side, most recent import permit data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) finds that total import permits for April totaled 1,945,000 net tons (nt). This was an 8.1 percent increase from the 1,799,000 permit tons recorded in March and a 10 percent rise from the March final imports total of 1,769,000 nt. Import permit tonnage for finished steel in April was 1,417,000, up 8.5 percent from the final imports total of 1,306,000 in March. For the first four months of 2026 (including April SIMA permits and March final imports), total and finished steel imports were 7,044,000 nt and 5,157,000 nt, down 28.8 percent and 30 percent, respectively, from the same period in 2025.
AISI said the estimated finished steel import market share in April was 17 percent and is 15 percent year-to-date. March market share rose 6.6 percent versus February, AISI said.
