With US domestic shredded scrap prices surging over $80/long ton this month, US billet prices are expected to rise as well. US mill offer prices (mostly destined for export) now range from $580-$600/mt FOB mill--a $40-$50/mt increase in the last month. However, sources tell SteelOrbis that overall prices are destined to jump even higher, as some mills are already asking for over $600/mt at a minimum. It seems, though, that surging raw material costs are the only factor influencing US billet's uptrend in prices--demand is decent, but not exciting, availability is adequate, and there doesn't seem to be an increase in export activity ahead of further increases.
There are pockets of demand strength, however, with the Middle East in particular leading the charge. Sources tell SteelOrbis that a decent number of deals are going to the region, but the US export billet market is still under heavy competition from offshore sources. Russian billet offers, for instance, are in the $560/mt FOB mill range, which comes in at about $20-$40/mt less than current US export prices.