Square billet prices in Turkey have increased quite significantly this week, being naturally supported by rising scrap prices, the generally bullish market and a certain lack of billet allocation, particularly in the domestic market in some regions. While the import offers for all origins have increased and there are few options for end of December-early January shipments, many have restocked in the Turkish domestic market and have accepted higher price levels. However, many believe that the uptrend in the scrap segment may end shortly or that at least prices will not go too far beyond $430-435/mt CFR, which might also cool down billet pricing.
Domestic workable prices in Turkey have also increased this week and good volumes have been sold this week. Integrated Kardemir has announced $559-569/mt ex-works for billet depending on the grade and successfully traded 58,000 mt. In the Izmir region, one of the buyers has purchased 10,000 mt of billet at $572/mt delivered from Marmara, while in the Iskenderun region around 10,000 mt of billet in total have been sold at $583/mt ex-works, sources say. Later on, a 6,000 mt billet sale has been reported in the same region at $590/mt ex-works, which is sort of on the high side.
Currently, taking into account the additional upturn in import scrap prices, the billet price range in Turkey is evaluated at around $570-590/mt ex-works, while there are expectations prices may hit $600/mt ex-works, which would hardly be workable for rebar re-rollers. It is worth mentioning that levels far above $575-585/mt ex-works are considered by many to be overpriced at the moment. “It is too high, at least for rebar, maybe for merchant bar production it is better,” a source said.
In the import segment, the price levels for non-Russian origins have inched up to levels somewhat closer to the domestic ones in Turkey. The latest offers from traders for Indonesian and Malaysian billet have been reported at $555-560/mt CFR for end-of-January shipments. Early last week, 50,000 mt were booked from Indonesia at $508/mt FOB, which is estimated by sources at around $545/mt CFR Izmir. However, such offers for Asian and MENA billets are not available anymore. An Algerian cargo has been on offer at $560/mt CFR and slightly above, for early January shipment, and it is expected to find a buyer quite easily. Some of the buyers have reported offers from the GCC at around $560-565/mt CFR for end-of-January shipments.
The SteelOrbis reference price for ex-Russia billet has increased to $515-520/mt FOB, up by $5/mt from yesterday and up $17.5/mt over the past week. The lowest offers for ex-CIS billet to Turkey have been coming at $540-545/mt CFR and some traders who were offering at this level already early this week have increased the asking prices to $550/mt CFR. A Russian producer with a 20,000 mt prompt billet cargo in hand has increased its price idea to a minimum of $550-555/mt CFR to be discussed next week. Another Russian mill has voiced its offers for January production billet at $520/mt FOB, which is again close to around $550/mt CFR. Though no new deals have been reported from Russia to Turkey after sales at $530-535/mt CFR for January shipment, market sources said that, with the current increase in scrap, the tradable level even for toxic Russian or Donbass origin will hardly be below $540/mt CFR.
In addition, new offers for ex-CIS billet to Egypt have been reported at $550-555/mt CFR, up by $10-15/mt from traders’ previous sales last week. And this level will be accepted “since local billets are mor expensive. Also, scrap internationally and locally is inching up,” a large trader said.
