Global View on Billet: Prices almost stable, market awaits decline with Iran’s possible return

The global billet market has remained inactive and most major sellers like the Chinese, Indians and others have kept prices stable. But market is waiting for clearer signals for a decline since, although overall costs in China are still high, demand has been worsening, while there are rumors that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz may lead to a revival of Iranian seaborne billet exports.

Prices for Asian billet - mainly Chinese billet - have remained almost unchanged this week since, while sellers have been under pressure from weak demand and strong coking coal and coke prices (in coke the eighth round of price increases has been proposed after the seventh round was implemented fully only on Monday). The Chinese billet export reference price has remained at $470-475/mt FOB, in line with last week. Asian billet in the regional market is now at $470-472/mt FOB, but billet for Saudi Arabia will always be slightly more expensive, so $475-480/mt FOB is workable only there. A deal for a large 50,000 mt lot of Asian billet is heard to have been booked in Saudi Arabia at $527/mt CFR with freight assessed at around $50/mt for Jeddah. Possible resumption of normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz may support shipments of iron ore and pellets and will make transportation of already booked cargoes of billet much easier to the GCC, but it is unlikely to boost new billet purchases much as local mills will work first of all to increase their own steel production.

In Southeast Asia’s import billet market, offers for 3SP have been at $490-495/mt CFR, while for 5SP they are at $495-498/mt CFR, but no new trades have been heard. Asian buyers have been cautious as they are waiting for lower levels that are possible from Iran if the peace deal with the US is successful. A few buyers have started to receive offers (around $475-480/mt CFR Southeast Asia has been rumored). But market sources believe that it will soon be hard to sell to Asia even at lower levels due to risks, high freight and a lack of understanding of how the market will work.

Indian government-run steel producer Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited (RINL) has this week floated three separate billet export tenders for an aggregate volume of 90,000 mt for deliveries in July-August 2026, with two of them expiring next week. One is for SAE, and two others are for 3SP/4SP 150 mm/200mm. The SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India billet stands at $460-475/mt FOB this week. The mill will target $475-480/mt FOB, but buyers in the Asian market want below $460/mt FOB, which would hardly be achievable. The success in the tenders will depend strongly on demand prospects in the Gulf region. One Indian IF billet sale has been rumored at $460/mt FOB this week.

Billet prices in Turkey have decreased by around $5-10/mt over the past week in the Izmir and Iskenderun regions to $550/mt and $540-545/mt ex-works, respectively, with the lower end of the range already seen in small deals. Some export offers have also declined, to $550-560/mt FOB, SteelOrbis has learned.

Import offers for Turkey have mainly been coming from China for September shipment at $525-527/mt CFR at the end of the current week, with no active negotiations reported after deals done at $525/mt CFR Izmir. No Malaysian and Indonesian offers have been heard in the market for several weeks now and they are not expected to be seen until the end of the month at least. Ukraine is also out of the Turkish market currently, due to its limited allocation.

Ex-Iran billet offers are still present in Turkey’s market, at $475-485/mt delivered in the Iskenderun region and at $490-505/mt delivered in the Karabuk region. The levels are not considered workable by many customers as there are fears that rebar prices will drop further.

The number of ex-Russia billet offers is scarce with some indications being voiced at $510-515/mt CFR for July shipment. However, taking into account the latest local Kardemir billet sales at low price levels, deal prices for Russian material are expected to be in the range of $495-500/mt CFR maximum, buyers believe. However, most Russian sellers are not in a position to give large discounts due to the unfavorable exchange rate of the ruble. The SteelOrbis daily reference price for ex-Russia billet now stands at $480-485/mt FOB, down $5/mt over the past week.