Global View on Billet: Market confident in uptrend amid most bullish week in China this year

This week has been among the most bullish in the Chinese billet market this year amid a sharp rise in futures prices, talk about production control and a surge in the coking coal market amid production restrictions. This has triggered an uptrend in other billet markets globally and confidence has increased among market sources that the strong mood will continue for some time.

The ex-China billet reference price has been increased by SteelOrbis to $450-460/mt FOB, up by $10/mt from yesterday and up $20/mt since Friday. Most Chinese traders have been reluctant to give firm offers in the export market, understanding that there will be no response from buyers, and that the focus should be on the local Chinese market and futures. The main reasons for the uptrend are the continued talk about supply reform in the steel industry and cost support amid higher raw material prices, coking coal in particular. 

The confidence among traders has increased as, unlike in the previous times, the uptrend has been triggered not only by expectations and speculations, but also by fundamental factors like supply control in the coking coal segment in China. Coking coal and coke futures jumped by the maximum limits on Tuesday after the news of production control measures by the government. All coal mines, which exceeded monthly production by 10 percent in H1 2025, will be ordered to suspend production and to pay fees.

By the end of this week, a long pause in billet sales from the ASEAN region has been terminated with over 100,000 mt sold to traders, who have become more confident in the rises in China seen since Monday. According to a number of market sources, 100,000 mt of ex-Indonesia billet have been traded at $450-453/mt FOB today. And the mill has increased its official offer by $3/mt from yesterday and $13/mt over the past week to $453/mt FOB for October shipment. In addition, around 30,000 mt of ex-Vietnam billet have been sold at $455/mt FOB, which, however, could not be fully confirmed by the time of publication.

Offers for 5SP 150 mm billet for Asian origins to the Philippines were at $460/mt CFR early this week and up to $470/mt CFR by the end of the week, up by at least $10/mt over the past week. Most billet customers are still countering at $450/mt CFR Manila for modified 150 mm 5SP. There has been a rumor about a deal signed at $455/mt CFR to the Philippines, but this has been not confirmed by SteelOrbis’ sources, saying that this is too low for sellers and too high for buyers at the moment. Prices for Thailand and Indonesia have even been higher - at $465-475/mt CFR. In particular, some Thai buyers have received offers in the range of $469-475/mt CFR even for 3SP. The previous deal to this destination was at $445/mt CFR.

In Turkey, the surge in China has been reflected in higher import billet prices. However, the interest towards Asian billet has been almost non-existent due to a shaky market trend and long lead times. As a result, some buyers have been interested in domestic billet and Kardemir has managed to sell up to 75,000 mt at $500-510/mt ex-works depending on the grade, up $15/mt from earlier this month. In other regions of Turkey, billet prices are at $500-510/mt ex-works, with no deals reported.

In Turkey’s import segment, Chinese billet prices have increased from $465-469/mt to $490-495/mt CFR, some traders are indicating slightly higher levels. Indonesia and Malaysia are not firm and are evaluated at $485-488/mt and $500-505/mt CFR respectively, based on the available prices on FOB basis for other destinations and also correlated with the increased Chinese offers.

Aside from Asia, offers from the Black Sea are also heard and, moreover, some of them might be accepted in the market due to relatively reasonable pricing against China and a shorter lead time. The offer levels for September shipment of billet from Ukrainian mills is at $500-510/mt CFR, up from earlier offers at $490/mt CFR and a deal closed last week for August shipment, at $480/mt CFR.

Russian and ex-Donbass indications, although not firmly offered, are at $465/mt CFR on average, up from $450-455/mt CFR in the latest sales in the past week. Based on Kardemir’s sales levels in Turkey and the fact that Russian origin is available for early August shipments, deals are expected at around $460-465/mt CFR for small lots. The SteelOrbis reference price for ex-Russia billet has been stable since early this week at $440-450/mt FOB, which is up by $11.5/mt over the week.

A higher number of Indian mills are reporting offers at around $435-440/mt FOB, versus $425-430/mt FOB last week and even some Tier I mills are submitting prices as high as $450/mt FOB. However, according to sources, while most Asian steel producing markets witnessed attempts by mills to increase prices, strong buyer resistance too was noticed and ex-India sellers faced strong challenges in pushing through offers at higher levels. An eastern India-based integrated mill which has submitted an offer for prime concast billet to Asia at $445/mt FOB, but the deal could only be finalized after the higher price was rolled back to $435/mt FOB. Similarly, another large mill submitted an offer for 30,000 mt at $450/mt FOB, but the final price worked out lower at $435/mt FOB for delivery to the UAE, the sources said.